Related News

Talks between US President Donald Trump and congressional leaders have failed to yield a funding deal, raising the prospect of a shutdown that could disrupt government services and delay key economic data, including the September jobs report. The threat of data gaps compounds uncertainty for investors and adds momentum to gold’s rally.

The US Department of Labor confirmed that it would suspend publication of official labor statistics, including the monthly employment report, in the event of a partial shutdown.

The sharp decline of the US dollar has provided additional support. The dollar index has tumbled nearly 10% this year, its steepest drop since 2017. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers, reinforcing demand.

Central bank demand creates structural support

Institutional demand has been another key driver. Central banks have purchased close to 1,000 metric tons of gold annually for four consecutive years, accounting for nearly a quarter of global demand. China's central bank has led the push, steadily adding to its reserves as part of its de-dollarization strategy.

The World Gold Council recently reported that 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next year, with nearly half planning to expand their own holdings. This persistent buying has provided a structural floor for prices.

Investment banks are increasingly bullish. Citi has lifted its gold price target to $4,000 in the next quarter, while JPMorgan Research expects prices to average $3,675 in the final quarter of 2025, rising further in 2026.

Analysts describe the rally as a "perfect storm" supported by Fed policy, dollar weakness, geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank accumulation.