Shekel shows signs of weakness amid Rafah invasion prep by IOF
3 Min Read
Leader Capital Markets chief economist Jonathan Katz believes the battlefront in Southern Lebanon is the bigger threat to the shekel, since one wrong move would instigate a regional war.
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A man holds Shekel paper bills in an undated photo. (AFP/Getty Images)
As the IOF prepare to invade Rafah, the Israeli shekel is showing signs of weakness according to Israeli analysts, with the shekel-dollar exchange rate currently at NIS 3.7444, compared to NIS 3.723 yesterday. The shekel fell more sharply against the euro from yesterday’s representative rate of NIS 3.9941/€ to today's rate of NIS 4.0315/€.
The deteriorating situation comes amid a deadlock in the negotiations between "Israel" and Hamas regarding a ceasefire deal and the release of captives, and amid "Israel's" plans to invade Rafah.
Price Risk Management, Finance, and Investment CEO Yossi Fraiman says, "The security situation rapidly sent the shekel-dollar rate higher again, but given the supply of foreign exchange from exporters needing to pay wages and taxes, the potential for depreciation of the shekel in the immediate term remains limited." Fraiman warned that further war escalation will affect the exchange rate, and make it soar above or back to NIS 3.8/$.
Leader Capital Markets chief economist Jonathan Katz analyzes, "I don’t see a high probability of depreciation of the shekel following the rejection of the ceasefire and entry into Rafah. This is not a surprise, and Israel has been gearing up for this operation. It all depends on the intensity of the fighting and its duration."
Katz believes the battlefront in Southern Lebanon is the bigger threat to the shekel, since one wrong move would instigate a regional war.
Read next: 'Israel' loots 1bn shekels from Gaza's central bank: Reports
More money for more problems?
Mizrahi Tefahot Bank chief markets economist Ronen Menachem claims that other factors are contributing to its fall, and are "partly connected to reports about the Turkish boycott and its effects on the economy," adding, "The Houthis in Yemen have also announced that they will step up their attacks."
Menachem continued to say, "The US dollar weakened globally in the past few days following tepid employment figures in the US, and a calming statement by US Federal Reserve chairperson Jerome Powell that US interest rates will not rise. That offsets some of the weakness of the shekel against the dollar."
He warned that "If the military escalation continues, the shekel will find it hard to stand its ground, and the Bank of Israel will have consider selling dollars from its reserves, in accordance with its published policy."
Back in March, "Israel" was gearing up to sell its first international bonds in efforts to fund its genocidal campaign in Gaza and its effects on the internal market.
Since the commencement of the war, "Israel" has already issued several privately placed bonds in various currencies, including the dollar, the euro, and the yen. But the regime had refrained from entering the public market until now.
According to Bloomberg, the projected size of the bond issuance falls in the range of $4 billion to $6 billion, making it one of "Israel's" largest bond issuance to date.
The genocide in Gaza has had a significant toll on the Israeli economy. The drafting of 300,000 reservists impacted several crucial economic sectors, including the tech industry, commerce, and tourism, among others.
