Vast water reserves beneath Europe are rapidly drying up, a major analysis of two decades of satellite observations has revealed, highlighting a growing water crisis driven by climate change and escalating demand. Freshwater storage is shrinking across large parts of southern and central Europe, from Spain and Italy to France, Germany, Poland, and eastern England, while Scandinavia and the north-west are becoming wetter.

The study, carried out by University College London (UCL) in collaboration with Watershed Investigations and The Guardian, analysed data recorded between 2002 and 2024. Satellites tracked subtle changes in Earth’s gravitational field to detect shifts in groundwater, rivers, lakes, soil moisture, and ice, effectively “weighing” Europe’s water.

Scientists warn that the results clearly reflect climate breakdown. “We’re no longer talking about limiting warming to 1.5°C,” said Mohammad Shamsudduha, professor of water crisis and risk reduction at UCL. “We’re likely heading toward 2°C above preindustrial levels, and we’re now witnessing the consequences.”

Hidden reserves declining

By isolating groundwater, which is typically less vulnerable to seasonal changes, researchers found the same downward trends across the continent, confirming widespread depletion of these crucial hidden reserves.

The UK reflects Europe’s divide: western regions are becoming wetter, while the east is drying further. Despite stable rainfall totals, patterns are shifting toward heavier downpours and longer drought spells, which reduce groundwater recharge.

“In south-east England, where groundwater supplies about 70% of public water, these shifting rainfall patterns could pose serious challenges,” Shamsudduha warned.

Usage pressures intensifying

Across the EU, total water extraction has dropped slightly since 2000. However, groundwater withdrawals have risen by 6%, driven primarily by public water supply and agriculture, according to the European Environment Agency. Groundwater now accounts for 62% of public drinking water and a third of irrigation needs across the bloc.

Brussels says its new water resilience strategy will push member states to reduce leakage, which ranges from 8% to 57% across Europe, and improve efficiency by at least 10% by 2030.

Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, warned that England faces ongoing drought risks into 2026 without significant winter rainfall. “We will face severe water restrictions, and that will make everybody’s life very difficult,” she said.

The UK government says nine new reservoirs are planned, but experts warn that large infrastructure alone cannot solve urgent shortages.

“We should be focusing on water reuse, using less water in the first place, separating drinking water from recycled waters, and using nature-based solutions,” Cloke said. “We’re just not doing these things fast enough.”

Food security, farming, ecosystems at risk

Shrinking reserves in Spain and Italy could also affect UK food supplies reliant on European produce. Groundwater-fed ecosystems, many already under strain, could face irreversible damage.

The crisis brings the impacts long seen in the global south closer than ever. “We need to accept that climate change is real, it’s happening, and it’s affecting us,” Shamsudduha said, calling for improved management and openness to “new, even unconventional” solutions such as widespread rainwater harvesting.

Drying hotspots are now emerging worldwide, from the Middle East and the US West Coast to South America and Asia. In Iran, Tehran is close to “day zero,” where taps run dry, and evacuation may be considered.