Japan estimates feared megaquake could cause $1.8 trillion in damage
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A long-anticipated megaquake off Japan's Pacific coast could cost the economy up to $1.81 trillion.
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Bystanders look at damage near Noto town in the Noto peninsula facing the Sea of Japan, northwest of Tokyo, on January 2, 2024, following a deadly earthquake. (AP)
Japan's economy could suffer losses of up to $1.81 trillion if a long-expected megaquake strikes off its Pacific coast, potentially causing massive tsunamis, the collapse of hundreds of buildings, and an estimated 300,000 fatalities, according to a government report released on Monday.
The projected economic damage of 270.3 trillion yen—nearly half of Japan's total GDP—marks a significant increase from the previous estimate of 214.2 trillion yen. According to a Cabinet Office report, this rise is attributed to inflationary pressures and updating terrain and ground data, which have expanded the expected flood zones.
According to government assessments, Japan, one of the most earthquake-prone nations, faces an estimated 80% probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring along the unstable seabed zone known as the Nankai Trough.
In the worst-case scenario of a magnitude 9 earthquake in the region, Japan could see 1.23 million evacuees—about 1% of its total population. The report indicated that up to 298,000 people could lose their lives due to tsunamis and building collapses, especially if the quake strikes late at night during winter.
The Nankai Trough, located off Japan's southwest Pacific coast, stretches approximately 900 km (600 miles), where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the Eurasian Plate. The buildup of tectonic stress in this region has historically led to megaquakes roughly every 100 to 150 years.
Last year, Japan issued its first-ever megaquake advisory, warning of a "relatively higher chance" of a magnitude 9 earthquake in the trough following a magnitude 7.1 quake at its edge.
The 2011 magnitude 9 earthquake triggered a catastrophic tsunami and caused triple reactor meltdowns at a nuclear power plant in northeast Japan, resulting in over 15,000 deaths.
