The escalating row between US President Donald Trump and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has devolved into a dangerous exchange of ultimatums and nuclear threats. The crisis began when Trump issued Russia a stark deadline, threatening sanctions and secondary tariffs if Moscow failed to end the Ukraine war within "about 10 or 12 days."

Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, responded sharply, warning that Trump's escalating pressure "risks triggering a broader conflict, not just between Russia and Ukraine, but between Russia and the US."

In a pointed rebuke, Medvedev declared on Monday: "50 days or 10...He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn't Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country. Don't go down the Sleepy Joe road!"

Trump fired back on Truth Social: "Tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he's still President, to watch his words. He's entering very dangerous territory!" 

In response, Medvedev on Thursday told US President Donald Trump to remember that Moscow possessed Soviet-era nuclear strike capabilities of last resort.

Deeper dive

As Trump launched a separate economic offensive, this time targeting the ties between Russia and India, he declared: "I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let's keep it that way."

Medvedev said that Trump's statement showed that Russia should continue on its current policy course.

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"If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path," Medvedev said in a post on Telegram.

Trump should remember, he said, "how dangerous the fabled 'Dead Hand' can be," a reference to a secretive semi-automated Russian command system designed to launch Moscow's nuclear missiles if its leadership had been taken out in a decapitating strike by an enemy.

These statements accompanied Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on Indian goods, where he accused New Delhi of maintaining "far too high" tariffs and criticized India's "extensive energy and arms relations with Russia." He also imposed an additional "penalty" on New Delhi for maintaining trade relations with Russia.

Trump is wrong about US trade with India

Trump's assertion that "we have done very little business with India" exposes either a stunning ignorance of trade data or deliberate misrepresentation. The United States has become India's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching a record $129.2 billion in 2024, representing remarkable growth with US goods exports to India totaling $41.8 billion (up 3.4% from 2023) and US imports from India reaching $87.4 billion (up 4.5% from 2023).

This partnership has become increasingly diversified and sophisticated, with India's export portfolio spanning high-value manufactured goods, technology products, and traditional sectors. Additionally, both countries have set ambitious targets under "Mission 500" to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, reflecting the strategic importance of this economic relationship.

Trump is wrong about India's economy, too

Trump's characterization of India as having a "dead economy" represents a fundamental misreading of economic reality. India has emerged as the world's 4th largest economy with $4.19 trillion GDP and is projected to become the 3rd largest by 2027-2028. Recent data show India maintaining 6.5% real GDP growth, making it the world's fastest-growing major economy.

US-Russia-India trade relations

US-Russia trade tells a different story entirely. US-Russia trade has collapsed to just $3.5 billion in 2024, a 90% decline from pre-war levels of approximately $38 billion in 2021. This dramatic reduction reflects the comprehensive sanctions regime implemented since Russia's operation in Ukraine, with limited imports now concentrated in fertilizers ($1.30 billion), precious stones and metals ($878 million), and inorganic chemicals ($696 million).

Alternatively, Russia-India trade has experienced unprecedented growth, reaching $68.7 billion in FY 2024-25, nearly six times the pre-pandemic level. Russian oil imports to India have surged with a 96% compound annual growth rate, making Russia India's largest oil supplier and accounting for 35-40% of India's total oil imports.

Trump should look inward

While Trump attacks foreign economies, the United States faces severe structural economic challenges. The US national debt has reached $37 trillion, which constitutes 122% of GDP and the highest level since World War II. The debt grows at an alarming rate of $1 trillion every three months, prompting warnings from leading economists about a looming financial crisis within the next three years.

Recent economic indicators paint a concerning picture. The first quarter in 2025 saw a -0.5% contraction, productivity declined -0.8%, and trade deficits continued expanding despite Trump's tariff policies.

Theater or strategy?

While Trump characterizes India's thriving economy as "dead", America grapples with mounting debt and structural challenges. Rather than addressing the $37 trillion debt crisis at home, Trump opts for theatrical rhetoric that undermines America's economic relationships and global standing.