Why Trump is unlikely to win the Nobel peace prize this year

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
Today 15:29

Despite Donald Trump's self-proclaimed role as a global peacemaker, experts say his record contradicts the principles of cooperation and disarmament central to the Nobel Peace Prize.

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A Nobel medal is displayed during a ceremony in New York on Dec. 8, 2020 (Pool Photo via AP, File)

The world's eyes are on Oslo, where the Norwegian Nobel Committee will reveal the 2025 Peace Prize laureate on Friday at 11:00 am (0900 GMT). But despite his frequent boasts that he deserves the honor, experts interviewed by Agence France-Presse say US President Donald Trump remains an improbable candidate.

His record, they argue, contradicts the very principles the Nobel Peace Prize was founded to uphold.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that he has "resolved eight conflicts," presenting himself as a global peacemaker. Yet analysts suggest his self-promotion obscures a pattern of short-lived ceasefires, failed negotiations, and unilateral policies that have often deepened, rather than resolved, global instability.

"No, it will not be Trump this year," Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert on international affairs, told AFP. "But perhaps next year? By then the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis," he added.

Record that runs counter to Nobel's vision

Scholars say Trump's "America First" foreign policy, established on power politics and transactional diplomacy, clashes with Alfred Nobel's vision of disarmament, cooperation, and the fraternity of nations.

"Beyond trying to broker peace for Gaza, we have seen policies that actually go against the intentions and what's written in the will of (Alfred) Nobel, notably to promote international cooperation, the fraternity of nations and disarmament," said Nina Graeger, head of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo.

Graeger and others point to his withdrawal from international agreements, including the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal, and UNESCO, as evidence of his contempt for multilateralism. His administration also launched trade wars against both allies and rivals, threatened military force against Denmark over Greenland, and used federal troops in US cities during protests, actions experts say run counter to the ideals of peace.

"The whole organization or the complete personality of that person matters, but what we first and foremost look at is what they have been actually achieving for the sake of peace," said Jørgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the five-member Nobel Committee.

Gaza: Legacy of division and despair

While Trump touts his recent "Gaza peace initiative" as proof of his statesmanship, his record on the Palestinian issue tells a different story. During his first term, Trump recognized al-Quds as "Israel's" capital, moved the US Embassy, cut funding to UNRWA, and closed the Palestinian diplomatic mission in Washington, measures that effectively dismantled the peace process and inflicted deep political and humanitarian harm on Palestinians.

His so-called "Deal of the Century" in 2020, which endorsed Israeli "annexation" of occupied territories, was widely viewed as an attempt to legitimize permanent occupation rather than resolve it.

Now, his 20-point Gaza plan, presented amid ongoing Israeli bombardments that have killed more than 67,000 Palestinians since October 2023, is seen by many as coercive diplomacy, tying reconstruction to Hamas' disarmament and foreign supervision.

Regional observers say it reinforces external control rather than empowering Palestinians, underscoring why Trump's claim to be a "peacemaker" in Gaza rings hollow.

Ukraine and NATO: Escalation, not resolution

Trump has also claimed that he could "end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours." Yet analysts argue his rhetoric has exacerbated mistrust between Moscow and NATO, not eased it.

As president, Trump repeatedly questioned the relevance of NATO, threatened to withdraw the United States from the alliance, and undermined Western unity by praising Russian President Vladimir Putin while alienating European allies. His inconsistent messaging, alternating between calls for negotiation and warnings of "obliteration", has deepened uncertainty on both sides.

Despite promises to "get Russia taken care of somehow," Trump's administration has produced no diplomatic framework to address Russia's security concerns or Ukraine's sovereignty. By 2025, Russian forces continue to annex Ukrainian territory, while no credible peace process has emerged from Washington's mediation efforts.

The 'Eight Conflicts' claim

Trump often cites his supposed role in ending or mediating conflicts from Nagorno-Karabakh to the Nile Basin, yet most of these "achievements" have little or no lasting impact:

Armenia-Azerbaijan: Trump hosted a ceasefire signing in Washington in 2025, but the truce collapsed within weeks.
Israeli war on Iran: His claimed mediation of a "ceasefire" after a brief flare-up was short-lived and unacknowledged by Tehran.
India-Pakistan border skirmishes: A purported de-escalation agreement between the two through direct military channels was already underway before American involvement.
Ethiopia-Egypt Nile dispute: US talks failed, and both parties returned to African Union mediation.
Serbia-Kosovo: His self-proclaimed success repackaged an EU framework that later broke down amid renewed clashes.
DR Congo-Rwanda: Fighting in eastern Congo continued unabated despite a claimed US "understanding".
Thailand-Cambodia border tensions: No peace treaty followed, only a temporary troop withdrawal.

In every case, the conflicts either reignited or remain unresolved, underscoring why experts regard Trump's "eight conflicts" narrative as political theater rather than peacemaking.

Crowded, unpredictable field

This year, 338 individuals and organizations are in contention for the Nobel Peace Prize, with the list kept secret for 50 years.

Past laureates, including Japan's Nihon Hidankyo in 2024, reflect what Halvard Leira, director of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, describes as "a return to more micro things, somewhat closer to classical ideas of peace," such as human rights, democracy, freedom of the press, and women's rights.

"My hunch would probably just perhaps be for a not that controversial candidate this year," Leira told AFP.

Names circulating include Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, and institutions like the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

Reaffirming multilateralism

Analysts believe the Nobel Committee may use this year's award to reaffirm faith in multilateralism amid the growing erosion of international norms, a dynamic that Trump's foreign policy has often worsened. Potential recipients include UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), or UNRWA, whose work with Palestinian refugees Trump defunded during his first term.

Others suggest that the committee could recognize press freedom organizations, such as the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders, as democratic backsliding and censorship worsen worldwide.

Still, as Jørgen Watne Frydnes noted, the committee's focus remains on tangible contributions to peace: "What we first and foremost look at is what they have been actually achieving for the sake of peace."

Presidency at odds with peace

From Palestine to Ukraine, Trump's actions have largely undermined the values of cooperation, disarmament, and international solidarity that Alfred Nobel envisioned. His self-described record as a peacemaker relies on claims of mediation without resolution and policies that have fueled new conflicts rather than preventing them.

For the Nobel Committee, and for much of the world, that makes Trump not a symbol of peace, but a reminder of how fragile it remains.