Despite overnight threats from both Hamas and US President Donald Trump that appeared to jeopardize the Gaza ceasefire, officials and analysts remained cautiously optimistic that the agreement would hold beyond the weekend—albeit likely not for much longer, The New York Times (NYT) reported on Tuesday.

The deal seemed on the brink of collapse when Hamas announced it would halt the release of Israeli captives from Gaza, accusing "Israel" of violating the ceasefire agreement.

In response, US President Donald Trump warned on Monday that "all hell" would break loose if all Israeli captives were not released from Gaza within the coming days—a threat that Hamas said "further complicates matters."

However, Hamas soon appeared to soften its stance, while Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he would "let that be Israel's decision" on what should ultimately happen to the ceasefire.

Nevertheless, NYT suggested that the impasse underscored the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the dwindling prospects of its extension beyond early March when it is set to expire unless further negotiations yield an agreement.  

The current standoff partly stems from Hamas’ accusation that "Israel" has failed to fulfill its commitments under the first phase of the ceasefire, which began on January 19 and was set to last six weeks. Under the agreement, "Israel" was to facilitate the entry of hundreds of thousands of tents and other humanitarian supplies into Gaza—an obligation Hamas claims has not been met.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, three Israeli officials and two mediators acknowledged that Hamas’ allegations were accurate.

However, COGAT, the Israeli military body responsible for overseeing aid deliveries to Gaza, dismissed these claims as “completely false”.

Despite the dispute, officials and analysts believe this issue could be resolved relatively easily if "Israel" agrees to allow more aid into Gaza, according to NYT.

“It’s likely that they will reach a compromise before Saturday,” suggested Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a political research institute in Ramallah. “But this crisis is a prelude for a much bigger crisis that is coming in early March,” he warned.

NYT emphasized that the greater challenge lies in the widespread perception that Netanyahu is deliberately obstructing negotiations over a potential extension of the ceasefire beyond early March.  

Talks were initially scheduled to begin early last week, but Netanyahu delayed sending a delegation to Qatar—one of the key mediators—until early this week. When the Israeli team finally arrived, it comprised three officials who had not previously led negotiations. According to five Israeli officials and a mediator, their mandate was limited to listening rather than engaging in substantive discussions, the newspaper noted.  

It also cited two officials familiar with the matter as saying that after hearing a general Qatari proposal regarding the next phase of talks, the Israeli delegation promptly returned to "Israel", reinforcing the perception that Netanyahu was stalling rather than seriously pursuing an extension of the ceasefire.  

Asked for comment, Omer Dostri, a spokesperson for Netanyahu, stated that "Israel" would send a negotiating team once the Israeli government had finalized its position.  

But Netanyahu has repeatedly asserted that Hamas will not remain in power at the end of the war, and members of his governing coalition have consistently advocated for resuming military operations to dismantle the group.

Hamas’ threat on Monday was widely seen as an effort not only to accelerate aid deliveries to Gaza but also to push Netanyahu into serious negotiations, NYT said, adding that analysts also interpreted the move as a response to Trump’s recent statements about "taking over" Gaza.

“There’s an anger among Hamas about the demands of both Netanyahu and Trump that Hamas will be kicked out of Gaza,” said Michael Milshtein, an Israeli expert on Palestinian affairs.

“The announcement yesterday was a kind of a signal that, if you continue demanding this, there will be several dramatic crises,” he added.

Read more: Mediators warn of ceasefire collapse amid Israeli breaches: Reuters