'Israel' dismissed intel on Oct 7, said beyond Hamas capabilities: NYT

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: The New York Times
1 Dec 2023 07:54
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An analyst with the Israeli signals intelligence warned that Hamas had carried out a training exercise in line with the plan, but was dismissed.

Al-Qassam Resistance fighters using motorized gliders to parachute into Israeli settlements in Gaza's envelope on October 7, 2023. (Al-Qassam military media)

Israeli officials had received intelligence indicating that the Palestinian Resistance movement Hamas was gearing up for a significant operation a year before the Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, but they chose to dismiss the warnings, arguing that they were "beyond Hamas' capabilities," The New York Times reported on Friday citing a document, emails, and interviews.

According to the newspaper, the intelligence report, while lacking a specific timeframe, included a planning blueprint that Al-Qassam Brigades fighters subsequently followed. It detailed operation elements such as an initial rocket barrage, efforts to disrupt surveillance through drones and other means, and waves of Resitsance fighters crossing into settlements via both land and air routes.

Even when an analyst from the Israeli signals intelligence - Unit 8200 - raised concerns about Al-Qassam carrying out a training exercise consistent with the outlined plan, her warnings were met with dismissal. She explicitly labeled it as a "plan designed to start a war," but a reviewing colonel suggested exercising "patience" with the situation, The Times added.

The Israeli colonel, in the Gaza Division, praised the analysis but said the drill was part of a “totally imaginative” scenario, not an indication of the Resistance's ability to execute it.

The document that was passed on to the Israeli officials contained sensitive security information about Israeli military capabilities and locations gathered by the Resistance group and was circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders. However, it remained unclear whether senior politicians had reviewed its contents.

An Israeli military assessment conducted the previous year concluded that it was premature to assert that Hamas had officially approved the plan, which was described as too ambitious and difficult to be implemented, and thus was disregarded.

The intelligence community continued to believe that Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar was not actively pursuing war with "Israel." However, this intelligence lapse, the newspaper pointed out, draws parallels to the failures experienced by the United States in the lead-up to the September 11, 2001 attacks.