In the latest outbreak of aggression on the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, 24 people have been pronounced dead between the two former Soviet states.

Both states are accusing each other of provocation after a ceasefire deal was reached yesterday, Friday, which was broken not long after.

Kyrgyz border patrol on Friday claimed that its forces were counter-fighting Tajik attacks: “From the Tajik side, shelling of the positions of the Kyrgyz side continues, and in some areas, intense battles are going on,” the services wrote in a statement. 

According to the Kyrgyz health ministry, 24 citizens have been killed and 87 have been wounded. However, there are no estimates of how many from the military were killed. 

However, the head of the Kyrgyz State Committee on National Security (UKMK), Kamchybek Tashiev, quoted Russia's RIA news agency as saying military casualties were high. 

#Tajikistan #Kyrgyzstan: The head of the Kyrgyz State Security Committee for Kyrgyzstan Kamchibek Tashiev said the country had suffered major losses among the military and civilians. He noted that the ceasefire is "extremely fragile". pic.twitter.com/Rz3QmP7eX3

— DRM Journal (@remilitari) September 16, 2022

“The situation is difficult and as for what will happen tomorrow, no one can give any guarantees,” said Tashiev. 

The UKMK, furthermore, accused the Tajik military of firing mortars at Dostuk: "As of 11:15 a.m. [local time, 05:15 GMT] the Tajik side fired mortars at the village of Dostuk in the Batken Region. The Tajik side opened fire on the village from three mortar units," said Tashiev, revealing that the UKMK's border services who were stationed at the Batken region countered the attack. 

Russia’s Interfax news agency noted that the Kyrgyz ministry of emergency announced that over 136,000 civilians have been evacuated from the conflict zone. 

On Friday, the ceasefire on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border collapsed after Tajik military fired at Kyrgyz two border guard settlements near the Kyrgyzstan border.

Both sides leveled accusations of shelling against one another. According to the Tajik side, one Tajik border guard was killed and three others were injured after shelling from Kyrgyz territory. On the other hand, the Kyrgyz Ministry of Health reported two deaths and 55 injuries.

Former Soviet pasts

Both countries host Russian military bases and have cordial and close ties with Moscow. The EU and the US have recently sought to meddle in Russia's foreign allies' affairs with the most recent offer the US has made by promising support for Armenia and Azerbaijan in solving their conflict. The intent in doing so is to downplay Russia's influence over the Caucasus and its allies. 

Temur Umarov, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focusing on Central Asia, said the remote and mostly agricultural villages in the conflict do not pose an economical significance, but that both nations have considered them politically significant, adding that both governments have relied on what he called "populist, nationalist rhetoric" that escalated the border situation, making the cessation of the conflict impossible. 

Central Asia analyst, Alexander Knyazev, said the sides showed no will to resolve the conflict peacefully and the mutual territorial claims provoked aggressive attitudes on all levels, suggesting that only third-party peacekeepers or mediators could prevent further conflicts by establishing a demilitarised zone in the area.