After Syria setback, Putin turns focus to escalation in Ukraine: NYT
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The fall of Assad's government has drawn anger and bewilderment from Russian ultranationalists, who see it as a catastrophic loss.
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Syrian opposition fighters remove a government flag from an official building in Salamiyah, east of Hama, Syria, on Saturday, December 7, 2024. (AP)
An analysis published in The New York Times on Thursday detailed the geopolitical implications of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's downfall for Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.
According to writer Anatoly Kurmanaev, the collapse of Assad's government has not only humiliated Moscow but also revealed the limits of the Kremlin's military reach and global influence.
Despite this setback, the analysis suggests that Putin views the loss of his Middle Eastern ally as a temporary obstacle to his broader geopolitical ambitions.
The Russian president's focus remains on securing victory in Ukraine, which has become an all-encompassing goal to validate the immense human and economic costs of the conflict.
Analysts argue that success in Ukraine could restore Russia's stature, compensate for strategic failures like Syria, and justify the prolonged war effort.
"Putin's bet on the war in Ukraine is so high that a victory there would bring Russia a payout of historic proportions: It's all or nothing," wrote Aleksandr Baunov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Implications for Ukraine
The analysis notes that the Syrian setback could lead Putin to escalate efforts in Ukraine to recover his prestige.
Pro-war commentators in Russia have echoed calls for more aggressive military actions, including intensified airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and harsher terms for any potential peace talks.
These commentators argue that Russia must avoid the kind of "frozen conflict" seen in Syria, which ultimately led to Assad's downfall.
Read more: NATO to freeze war to boost Ukraine’s combat readiness: Russia's Intel
Putin has insisted that any resolution to the Ukraine war must guarantee Russia's territorial gains and block Ukraine from joining NATO.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly rejected such conditions, insisting that Ukraine's sovereignty must be restored.
Reactions from Russian Nationalists
The fall of Assad's government has drawn anger and bewilderment from Russian ultranationalists, who see it as a catastrophic loss.
Some have called for a more brutal approach in Ukraine to prevent a similar outcome. Aleksei Pilko, a Russian historian, urged Moscow to use "extreme toughness" to demonstrate strength and recover its global standing.
Others, like Oleg Tsaryov, a pro-Russian former Ukrainian lawmaker, have stressed the importance of resolving conflicts decisively.
"If a conflict is frozen, the enemy will undoubtedly exploit your moment of weakness," Tsaryov warned, advocating for a peace deal that permanently cements Russia's territorial control.
Challenges Ahead
Military analysts caution that while the Kremlin may seek to escalate in Ukraine, Russia's depleted military capacity limits its options.
The Ukrainian government and Western officials remain skeptical of Russia's ability to achieve a decisive victory, citing the strain on Moscow's resources after nearly three years of war.
The analysis also draws lessons from Syria's 13-year long war with the opposition, where temporary gains ultimately proved unsustainable.
"In a modern world, a victory is only possible in a fast and short war," wrote Ruslan Pukhov, a Russian military expert. "If you can't secure success quickly, you will eventually lose, no matter what you do."
Read more: Assad fled as Russia ‘no longer interested in protecting him’: Trump
Looking Ahead
As Putin faces mounting challenges on multiple fronts, the fallout from Assad's collapse could influence his strategy in Ukraine.
While some expect the Russian leader to escalate military efforts, others argue he may instead use the setback as an opportunity to recalibrate his approach.
Whether the Kremlin doubles down or seeks a diplomatic resolution, the implications of its losses in Syria will undoubtedly reverberate in its broader geopolitical calculations, according Kurmanaev.
