Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Israeli media outlet: Security incident reported in the Gaza Strip
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson: No new date or venue has been set for the meeting between Araghchi and Witkoff, and no negotiations will take place until the outcome is guaranteed
Palestinian platforms: Settlers storm Al-Aqsa Mosque complex under the protection of the occupation police
Palestinian platforms: The IOF detonated a booby-trapped robot east of the al-Zaytoun neighborhood, south of Gaza City
Syrian Defense: We call on all parties in Sweida to cooperate with security forces and exercise restraint
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: The Lebanese Army is continuing its investigations and will later announce any information that does not affect the confidentiality of the investigation
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: It has not yet been determined whether the detainees belong to ISIS or another organization
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: Around 10 people of different nationalities, including Lebanese nationals, were detained
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: The Lebanese army arrested a number of people in the Matn area of Mount Lebanon with possession it has not disclosed
Gaza Civil Defense spokesman: We have strong indications that there are martyrs, injuries, and trapped people in the Salah al-Din area

Analysis finds Israeli missile defenses may crumble by day 18 of war

  • By Al Mayadeen English
  • Source: Middle East Think Tank
  • 17 Jun 2025 02:02
  • 7 Shares
3 Min Read

An OSINT analysis warns that "Israel’s" missile defense systems could begin failing around day 18 if Iran maintains a steady pace of 50–70 ballistic missile launches per day.

Listen
  • x
  • Analysis finds Israeli missile defenses may crumble by day 18 of war
    The Israeli air defense systems attempted to intercept Iranian missiles targeting strategic sites in Tel Aviv, occupied Palestine, on June 15, 2025. (AP)

A military-focused open-source intelligence (OSINT) X account covering the Middle East and West Asia fronts, @METT_Project, projected that Iranian ballistic missile strikes could begin significantly breaching "Israel's" missile defense network around the 18th day of sustained attacks.

In a detailed thread shared on Monday, the account estimated that "Israel" and allies possess between 950 and 1,120 ballistic missile defense (BMD) interceptors, including Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems, David’s Sling batteries, a limited number of THAAD launchers deployed in al-Naqab, and SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors onboard two US Navy destroyers stationed nearby.

A timeline of Israeli air defense depletion

Based on this stockpile, the analysis concluded that defending against a sustained barrage of 50 to 70 Iranian ballistic missiles per day would require the expenditure of between 72 and 84 interceptors daily, assuming an average of 1.2 to 1.4 interceptors needed per missile.

For how long can Israel's BMD network be effective against consistent 50–70 ballistic missiles launches by Iran per day?
A numbers-based breakdown. pic.twitter.com/OFcRiUzvZe

— METT (@METT_Project) June 16, 2025

Missile defense to show strain between days 10-15

Related News

Iran defends regional policies, warns of escalating aggression in Gaza

Iran accuses 'Israel' of environmental war crimes during aggression

This level of consumption, according to a best-case projection for the Israeli side, would result in "Israel’s" BMD grid showing signs of strain between days 10 and 15.

Day 18 to potentially show major cracks in layered defenses

Coverage gaps would begin to emerge, and by the 18th day, the system would be approaching a tipping point in which daily missile penetrations would increase, and priority zones would receive reduced protection. Without emergency resupply, the grid would face progressive attrition, making it increasingly vulnerable to sustained salvos.

Read more: Iranian high-tech strikes breach Israeli air defenses: The Telegraph

Why are air defenses doomed to fail?

The thread noted that multiple failures have already occurred, including at least eight known missile “leakers” and three direct hits near major BMD nodes, including in the Haifa and the Tel Aviv sectors. Several factors contributed to these breaches, including saturation from large-scale barrages, the presence of decoys, timing gaps in the burnout phase of incoming missiles, and potential performance issues stemming from older interceptor stocks.

Resupply and logistics are likely to become a critical concern. The Arrow system requires two to four weeks to replenish, while US-controlled THAAD and SM-series munitions are subject to regional drawdown limitations. The Aegis BMD system, used by US Navy warships, cannot be reloaded at sea.

Read more: Iran arrests Mossad agents, dismantles espionage, drone networks

A recap of expected performance

According to @METT_Project’s projection, the trajectory of the war on Iran would see "Israel’s" defenses mostly containing missile attacks in the first ten days. However, in the following five days, signs of strain would emerge, with coverage gaps and rationing of interceptors. Beyond day 18, interceptor depletion and system fatigue would allow Iranian missiles to achieve deeper and more frequent penetrations.

The analysis conducted by METT assumes that the Iranian Armed Forces will maintain a 50-70 missile launches per day and that no additional air defense batteries will be incorporated into the Israeli BMD.

Read more: Haifa refinery facilities shut down amid damage from Iranian strike

  • war on Iran
  • Israel
  • Israeli occupation forces
  • David's sling
  • IRGC
  • Arrow 3
  • Iran
War on Iran

War on Iran

Most Read

Hezbollah SG reveals war details on Al Mayadeen for the first time

Hezbollah SG reveals war details on Al Mayadeen for the first time

  • Politics
  • 8 Jul 2025
Major ambush in Gaza kills 6 Israeli troops, injures dozens

Major ambush in Gaza kills 5 Israeli troops, injures 14

  • Politics
  • 8 Jul 2025
Israeli soldiers are seen in Beit Hanoun ahead of an operation by the al-Qassam Brigades, undated (Al-Qassam Brigades Military Media)

'Israel' on blast as media exposes report discrepancies in Gaza ambush

  • Palestine
  • 8 Jul 2025
Yemen Navy sinks ETERNITY C ship, shares footage of operation

Yemen Navy sinks ETERNITY C ship, shares footage of operation

  • Politics
  • 9 Jul 2025

Coverage

All
The Ummah's Martyrs

Read Next

All
The Freedom Flotilla ship Handala as it departs for Gaza, where it aims to break the maritime blockade at a port in Syracuse, Sicily in southern Italy on July 13, 2025. (AFP)
Palestine

Freedom Flotilla's Handala departs Sicily in bid to break Gaza siege

The container ship CMA CGM Laperouse, left, docks at the Georgia Ports Authority's Port of Savannah, Sept. 29, 2021, in Savannah, Ga (AP)
Politics

US shipbuilding woes deepen as tariffs, outdated policies backfire

Gaza war raises ethical questions for ex-Obama, Biden officials
Politics

Mercenary firm tied to Gaza war crimes hires Obama-Biden PR operatives

'Israel' targets children in Gaza collecting water
Palestine

'Israel' strikes Gaza kids fetching water, blames it on 'malfunction'

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS