Analysis finds Israeli missile defenses may crumble by day 18 of war

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Middle East Think Tank
Today 02:02
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An OSINT analysis warns that "Israel’s" missile defense systems could begin failing around day 18 if Iran maintains a steady pace of 50–70 ballistic missile launches per day.

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The Israeli air defense systems attempted to intercept Iranian missiles targeting strategic sites in Tel Aviv, occupied Palestine, on June 15, 2025. (AP)

A military-focused open-source intelligence (OSINT) X account covering the Middle East and West Asia fronts, @METT_Project, projected that Iranian ballistic missile strikes could begin significantly breaching "Israel's" missile defense network around the 18th day of sustained attacks.

In a detailed thread shared on Monday, the account estimated that "Israel" and allies possess between 950 and 1,120 ballistic missile defense (BMD) interceptors, including Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems, David’s Sling batteries, a limited number of THAAD launchers deployed in al-Naqab, and SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors onboard two US Navy destroyers stationed nearby.

A timeline of Israeli air defense depletion

Based on this stockpile, the analysis concluded that defending against a sustained barrage of 50 to 70 Iranian ballistic missiles per day would require the expenditure of between 72 and 84 interceptors daily, assuming an average of 1.2 to 1.4 interceptors needed per missile.

For how long can Israel's BMD network be effective against consistent 50–70 ballistic missiles launches by Iran per day?
A numbers-based breakdown. pic.twitter.com/OFcRiUzvZe
— METT (@METT_Project) June 16, 2025

Missile defense to show strain between days 10-15

This level of consumption, according to a best-case projection for the Israeli side, would result in "Israel’s" BMD grid showing signs of strain between days 10 and 15.

Day 18 to potentially show major cracks in layered defenses

Coverage gaps would begin to emerge, and by the 18th day, the system would be approaching a tipping point in which daily missile penetrations would increase, and priority zones would receive reduced protection. Without emergency resupply, the grid would face progressive attrition, making it increasingly vulnerable to sustained salvos.

Why are air defenses doomed to fail?

The thread noted that multiple failures have already occurred, including at least eight known missile “leakers” and three direct hits near major BMD nodes, including in the Haifa and the Tel Aviv sectors. Several factors contributed to these breaches, including saturation from large-scale barrages, the presence of decoys, timing gaps in the burnout phase of incoming missiles, and potential performance issues stemming from older interceptor stocks.

Resupply and logistics are likely to become a critical concern. The Arrow system requires two to four weeks to replenish, while US-controlled THAAD and SM-series munitions are subject to regional drawdown limitations. The Aegis BMD system, used by US Navy warships, cannot be reloaded at sea.

A recap of expected performance

According to @METT_Project’s projection, the trajectory of the war on Iran would see "Israel’s" defenses mostly containing missile attacks in the first ten days. However, in the following five days, signs of strain would emerge, with coverage gaps and rationing of interceptors. Beyond day 18, interceptor depletion and system fatigue would allow Iranian missiles to achieve deeper and more frequent penetrations.

The analysis conducted by METT assumes that the Iranian Armed Forces will maintain a 50-70 missile launches per day and that no additional air defense batteries will be incorporated into the Israeli BMD.