Analysis: Russian gas cutoff could spark global economic crisis, Qatar and US work
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An analysis by the Associated Press explains why the US will meeting with Qatar, expectations of the meeting, and puts forward an examination of their relationship over a number of issues.
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The Emir of Qatar during a visit to Biden.
The White House will be hosting the ruler of Qatar on Monday to discuss Afghanistan, the resurrection of Iran's nuclear deal, in addition to plans and efforts to provide natural gas to Europe in case of a Russian invasion in Ukraine. An analysis by the Associated Press examines this event, as well as this relationship.
Qatar was the main player in Washington's military evacuations in Afghanistan, evacuating Afghan helpers and US citizens from Afghanistan. Qatar has the largest American airbase in West Asia, serving as a mediator between the Taliban and the last 3 US administrations in the de-escalation of the war.
Another event, however, binds the two countries together: the tense situation on the Ukrainian border. In the AP analysis, with 100,000 Russian troops gathered at the Ukraine border, Qatar may be able to provide Europe with liquefied natural gas - a resource that Russia has been providing to Europe through Ukraine.
“Qatar sees this as an opportunity to further improve its relationship with the U.S. after Afghanistan,’” said Yesar Al-Maleki, an energy economist at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “But it is going to be very hard to do because there isn’t excess supply.”
The supplies are well-distributed, and at full capacity: a large slice of the supply is under contract to Asia, and some Pacific US allies, namely India, Japan, and South Korea. However, even if these allies are coerced into rerouting the liquefied natural gas to Europe, it won't have much effect on the dilemma in case of an invasion.
Last week, natural gas future prices increased as the market experiences fear that a Russian invasion would disrupt gas supply moving through to Europe.
The dynamic is as such: If an escalation would happen in Ukraine this would trigger an immediate economic embargo on Russia by Washington - and, knowing that Russia supplies 40% of European gas, sanctions would create a gas shortage around the world, sending gas prices to skyrocket and thus hurting the global economy.
Despite all this, Russia repeatedly denied that there will be any "Russian invasion of Ukraine", and the government's spokesman Dmitry Peskov called US' anxieties that Moscow would invade Ukraine "fake hysteria."
While the Biden administration revealed that they will be discussing the Ukraine situation, they refused to reveal details on any commitments which Biden may request from the Qatari emir.
Afghanistan
In Afghanistan, social and economic conditions have worsened for millions of the population, driving many to the brink of death.
Amid the chaotic evacuation of US officials and foreign personnel from Afghanistan, Qatar kept its passenger flights in operation. Qatar's ambassador to Afghanistan, personally, escorted convoys of evacuees to the airport - thousands fled the country last year. Biden's officials dumped a heap of praise on Qatar for its doing.
“Many countries have stepped up to help the evacuation and relocation efforts in Afghanistan, but no country has done more than Qatar,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a visit to Qatar in September.
There are expectations among White House officials that the Qatari emir will request Biden to approve a $500 million sale of M-9 Reaper drones, which is a deal that Trump declined when he was in office.
