As Gaza ceasefire holds, West Bank faces rising tensions: FP

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Foreign Policy
16 Oct 2025 14:03
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As the Gaza ceasefire takes effect, violence escalates in the West Bank amid expanding settlements, settler attacks, and a silent Trump administration.

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Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich holds a map that shows the E1 settlement project during a press conference near the settlement of Ma'ale Adumim, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Thursday, August 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

The recent ceasefire in Gaza, which includes the return of captives and the entry of humanitarian aid, has been met with cautious optimism. While many have welcomed the truce, observers warn against complacency.

However, Daniel C. Kurtzer a former US ambassador to Egypt and "Israel", and Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace state in an analysis for Foreign Policy Magazine that despite the deal’s potential to bring a measure of relief to Palestinians in Gaza, attention is now shifting to the rapidly deteriorating situation in the West Bank.

Brokered with the involvement of US President Donald Trump’s administration, the ceasefire marks a diplomatic achievement that had been in discussion for over a year. But the writers note that it risks being overshadowed by intensifying violence and territorial shifts taking place beyond Gaza.

In the months leading up to the Palestinian Resistance's October 7 operation, conditions in the West Bank had already been deteriorating. What began as warnings of a possible third Intifada has since escalated into widespread unrest.

The analysts say that since October 2023, the number of Israeli settlement outposts has surged. An additional 114 outposts have been established, adding to the 190 already present. These new structures, whether residential or agricultural, have led to increased land confiscations, with approximately 13,600 acres of Palestinian land stolen through designations such as "state land" and military seizure orders. At least 68 agricultural sites have also received full infrastructure support.

Meanwhile, 11 previously unauthorized outposts have been retroactively legalized by the Israeli government. The writers say the aggressive pace of settlement expansion has not only fueled Palestinian anger but also undercut prospects for any meaningful peace.

E1 project revived despite international concern

The analysts highlight the E1 project as a critical flashpoint, as it aims to connect Al-Quds with the illegal settlement of Ma'ale Adumim.

Revived in late August and approved by the Israeli Higher Planning Committee, the plan includes 3,400 new housing units. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly endorsed the project in a ceremony on September 11.

The E1 project would effectively bisect the West Bank, making territorial continuity between the north and south almost impossible, a move, the writers state, is widely seen as a death knell for any future Palestinian state.

While past US administrations have blocked the E1 plan, the current Trump administration has taken no such steps. In fact, the Foreign Policy analysts note, statements from US officials suggest tacit approval. US Ambassador to "Israel" Mike Huckabee publicly stated the E1 project is a matter for the Israeli government and does not violate international law.

Palestinian and Israeli extremists fuel unrest

While diplomatic efforts have focused on Gaza, Kurtzer and Miller note that the West Bank has become a new theater of instability. In 2025 alone, over 7,500 Israeli military raids have been carried out. Since 2023, more than 20,000 Palestinians have been detained, and 999 have been killed, 967 by Israeli forces and more than 20 by settlers, according to the writers.

Palestinian armed groups, including the Lions’ Den and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, have carried out defensive operations resulting in the deaths of 41 settlers in the West Bank and 17 more inside the territories occupied in 1948. The rise in so-called lone wolf operations further signals a breakdown in security and governance.

UN figures indicate over 3,000 violent incidents involving Israeli settlers. These include home demolitions, attacks on Palestinian civilians, and destruction of farmland, all contributing to mounting unrest.

As settler violence and land seizures intensify, the Trump administration has not only remained silent but also reversed previous sanctions imposed on Israeli settlers by the Biden administration. The absence of US pressure has emboldened expansionist policies and undermined any diplomatic progress achieved in Gaza.

What’s needed to prevent a broader collapse

Kurtzer and Miller cite experts who warn that unless urgent measures are taken, the situation in the West Bank could spiral out of control. On the ground, this means halting the E1 project, ending land confiscations, and curbing settler violence.

They also demand that the Palestinian Authority reassert its presence beyond Ramallah and crack down on armed factions contributing to instability, noting that security coordination needs to be revived and governance restored to prevent further descent into chaos.

Ultimately, the writers say that the path forward will require sustained international engagement. They write that if the Trump administration is serious about peace, it must act with the same urgency in the West Bank as it did in Gaza.