Brazil’s conservative bloc is searching for a viable presidential contender as the political empire built by former President Jair Bolsonaro collapses under the weight of legal scandals, infighting, and the rapid downfall of his once-powerful family.

The 70-year-old former president, long a central figure of Latin America’s far right and a close ideological ally of United States President Donald Trump, is now serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup. His arrest last month, following a violation of his house-arrest conditions, has sent shockwaves through Brazil’s right wing and forced party leaders to confront a new political reality: Bolsonarismo has lost its guiding figure, and his heirs are mired in crises of their own.

Bolsonaro dynasty in disarray

Jair Bolsonaro appeared visibly isolated when federal police detained him on November 22, after he tampered with his electronic monitoring device. While he claimed medication-induced hallucinations led him to damage the ankle tag, prosecutors said he had attempted to obstruct monitoring during a protest organised by his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.

His second son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, once the highest-voted congressman in Brazil’s modern history, is now in self-imposed exile in the US. His efforts to secure Trump’s intervention in his father’s legal troubles backfired dramatically, triggering Washington’s imposition of steep tariffs on Brazilian goods. The move angered Brazilian industry leaders, failed to influence the Supreme Court, and left Eduardo facing possible prosecution for obstruction of justice should he return home.

Flavio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, drew the ire of the Supreme Court after rallying supporters outside his father’s residence and invoking “the Lord of the Armies” against alleged persecution. The judge overseeing Bolsonaro’s case accused the senator of provoking unrest and attempting to compromise police supervision.

With the patriarch in ill health and likely to spend the rest of his life behind bars, analysts say the one-time first family’s political capital has evaporated. A once-vibrant campaign demanding a presidential pardon has dissipated, leaving conservatives to reckon with the movement’s leadership vacuum.

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Right-wing eyes shift to Sao Paulo governor

As Bolsonaro’s political dynasty unravels, Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas has emerged as the right’s strongest potential challenger to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in next year’s elections.

A former army engineer and Bolsonaro’s infrastructure minister, de Freitas is widely respected by Brazil’s business elite and maintains loyal ties to his former boss. He has publicly supported calls for Bolsonaro to be pardoned and regularly held discussions in Brasília in an effort to ease the ex-president’s situation.

But his growing prominence has made him a target of the Bolsonaro clan’s internal warfare. Eduardo Bolsonaro has attacked him as “the establishment candidate”, while the governor’s allies insist he will only launch a presidential bid with the former president’s explicit blessing.

“He is loyal to Bolsonaro,” one adviser said, according to The Financial Times, noting that de Freitas is likely to decide by mid-February, ahead of the April deadline requiring officeholders to step down if they intend to run.

Political observers say Bolsonaro could be persuaded to endorse de Freitas by naming Flavio Bolsonaro as the governor’s running mate, a move that could unify factions and salvage the family’s relevance. Others suggest the former president remains torn between supporting a viable conservative candidate and preserving his family’s dwindling influence.

Lula remains the favourite, for now

President Lula, who turns 81 next year, has signaled his intention to seek a fourth term. Brazil’s economic momentum, rising wages, employment growth, and limited exposure to Trump-era tariffs have strengthened his position ahead of 2026.

Nonetheless, analysts say public frustration over crime and security could shape the campaign. Lula faced backlash last month after remarking that drug traffickers were “victims” of users, prompting criticism and a rapid apology.

For now, experts believe de Freitas is the only conservative figure capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent. “Against all the others, Lula is the clear favourite,” Thomas Traumann, a political analyst and former presidential spokesperson, said.

“If the election were in two months, Lula would win. But there’s still nearly a year to go.”

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