Carney survives two confidence votes, easing winter election threat

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: News websites
Today 16:22

This step eases immediate fears of a snap winter election while underscoring the fragile nature of his parliamentary support.

Listen

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney makes a keynote speech at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, October 31, 2025 (AP)

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority Liberal government has survived two critical confidence votes on its federal budget, easing immediate fears of a snap winter election while underscoring the fragile nature of his parliamentary support.

The Liberals passed the second of three votes on the sprawling fiscal plan late Friday, setting the stage for a decisive final vote in mid-November that will determine whether Carney’s ambitious spending agenda becomes law. The budget, which outlines tens of billions in new spending amid a faltering economy, secured passage thanks in part to an unexpected boost from Conservative lawmakers who sided with the government.

Economic pressures, expanding deficit

Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne unveiled the 2025-26 federal budget earlier this week, warning that a weakening domestic economy and escalating trade tensions with the United States had forced Ottawa to accept a deficit far larger than anticipated.

“The level of uncertainty is higher than what we have seen and felt for generations,” Champagne told Parliament, urging “bold and swift action.”

The new fiscal plan raises the projected deficit from 42.2 billion Canadian dollars (C$) to C$78.3 billion for 2025–26, with a gradual reduction to C$56.6 billion expected by 2029-30. The government argues that the increased spending represents “generational investments” aimed at reshaping Canada’s economic model for long-term resilience.

Political maneuvering and shifting alliances

Carney, who leads a minority government with 169 seats, three short of a majority, had faced warnings from within his own ranks that failure to secure opposition support could trigger an election over the holidays.

Those concerns eased after Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont, representing a Nova Scotia riding, crossed the floor to join the Liberals in a dramatic defection. D’Entremont cited dissatisfaction with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s “brusque” leadership and hinted that other Tories shared his discontent.

His move provided Carney a narrow but crucial boost. Hours later, the resignation of long-serving Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux, who denied speculation he was pressured to leave after private talks with Carney, further rattled the opposition.

“There’s no way this is just a coincidence,” said Government Whip Mark Gerretsen, accusing Poilievre of presiding over a party “losing progressive voices.”

Carney’s balancing act

Carney, a former central banker with a technocratic reputation, has sought to distance himself from partisan politicking while navigating the practical realities of minority rule. His willingness to engage with potential allies, however, signals a pragmatic shift.

“I’ll speak to anyone, publicly or otherwise, who wants to get things done,” Carney told reporters Friday.

Political analysts say his focus on fiscal responsibility and economic management has helped the Liberals appeal to moderate conservatives disenchanted with Poilievre’s combative style.

“Carney’s strength lies in his image as a competent, post-partisan leader,” said Lori Turnbull of Dalhousie University. “He’s managed to make the economy, not ideology, the center of Canadian politics again.”

With one vote left to secure, Carney’s survival this week may mark a temporary victory. But it also reveals the delicate balancing act required to sustain power in a divided Parliament, and the unpredictable alliances that may shape Canada’s political future.