Drone swarms en route to alter global balance of military power via AI

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: The Wall Street Journal
14 Mar 2024 22:36
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A report by the Wall Street Journal explains how Iran's cost-effective and capable drones are changing the landscape of warfare.

Iran-made drones are displayed in a ceremony marking their handover to the Iranian Armed Forces in August 2023 (Iranian Armed Forces release)

Iran's Shahed drones, with their low price and high effectiveness, have become a serious challenge for traditional warfare that has burdened world armies with billions of dollars worth of equipment, The Wall Street Journal said in a report on Thursday.

While this is true for most advanced drones currently available, Shahed has been battlefield tested in several conflicts and has demonstrated that its capabilities, combined with its estimated $20,000 price tag, pose a threat to even the strongest militaries, including the United States.

The report mentioned the recent Yemeni drone operations in the Red and Arabian Seas and the recent attack on a US military base in Jordan which killed three US troops, to highlight the success of unmanned systems in changing the landscape of military power and the potential vulnerability of even the most advanced warships.

Traditionally, warships have been a key symbol of American power projection. However, the rise of drones, particularly the Shahed drones, presents a new and potentially more cost-effective threat.

Following the start of the Israeli war on Gaza, US President Joe Biden deployed two carrier battle groups to the region in order to protect the occupation entity.

The USS Gerald R. Ford, one of the carriers, was on its maiden voyage and is the most expensive warship ever built, costing $13 billion. But for the same price as the Ford warship, a nation could purchase 650,000 Shahed drones - a volume that allows a country to comfortably launch dozens of the drones in a single attack to land a certain hit on even the most advanced battleships.

From Sarissa to Shahed

However, it is not only about having the drone, it is how the drone is deployed and utilized to gain maximum capability.

On that, the report touched upon an event during the times of Alexander the Great.

His conquests saw the implementation of technological advancements on the battlefield, leading to his win in many pivotal wars. His army used the sarissa, a 16-foot spear, and employed new tactics, like forming tight phalanxes, which helped them repel Persian chariots and Indian war elephants.

These upgrades allowed Alexander to march deep into the Indian subcontinent.

Large warships are equipped with cutting-edge air defense systems that allow them to defend themselves from a significant barrage of drones, yet introducing AI into the drone realm could change everything, including how to fulfill the true potential of the unmanned systems.

The WSJ piece further sheds light on the potential impact of drones, particularly when used in swarms controlled by artificial intelligence (AI), on the future of warfare. While this scenario is not yet a reality, it is approaching rapidly. The concern is that if armies are not ready for this shift in military technology and it is deployed extensively, it could significantly alter the global balance of military power.

AI-directed Shahed swarms

The report says that the future of warfare will be shaped not by individual weapons but by interconnected systems of weapons working together. These systems are expected to be more cost-effective. Many such systems already exist, but what is lacking at the moment are AI-directed systems that would enable a nation to conduct unmanned warfare on a large scale. While these systems are still under development, they are expected to become a significant part of future military strategies.

It further highlights the difference in the threat posed by a small number of Shahed drones compared to a large swarm of AI-directed drones.

A few Shahed drones can be countered with the technology available today, according to the newspaper. But a swarm of dozens or hundreds of drones, controlled by artificial intelligence, would be much more challenging to defend against. Such swarms could overwhelm defenses and destroy even advanced military platforms.

Transform warfare

Countries relying on costly, large-scale military systems such as aircraft carriers, stealth aircraft, or battle tanks may face vulnerabilities when confronted with adversaries using inexpensive, easily deployed, and long-range unmanned weapons.

US warships are equipped with anti-air defense systems that aim to recognize a threat and make timely decisions to counter it. It employs what is known as the OODA loop—observe, orient, decide, act, and theoretically, the party able to implement it fastest will have the upper hand in the battle.

According to WSJ, OODA loop has proven successful for all but one attack on American warships since last October, but the threat has remained so far with traditional drones. AI-direct swarms, on the other hand, could overwhelm any human-managed OODA loop.

The report stated that while it is not feasible to manually pilot thousands of autonomous drones, the computational power of AI makes the concept of such swarms achievable, and this will "transform warfare".

It suggests that the key competition will be for the most effective AI systems rather than the best physical platforms, and the side with superior AI-driven decision-making, particularly in managing swarms of drones, will have the advantage. This represents a shift toward a conflict of AI systems, or a "brain-on-brain" conflict.

"Much like the nuclear arms race of the last century, the AI arms race will define this current one. Whoever wins will possess a profound military advantage," the newspaper concluded.