Economy core issue driving US voters presidential choice: Poll
7 Min Read
The poll suggests that views on the economic policies of the presidential candidates have the most impact on who voters will vote for.
-
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (R) shakes hands with former US president and Republican candidate Donald Trump at the start of their debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. (AFP)
Rising prices will be the primary motivator for voters in the upcoming presidential elections, with a growing number of people emphasizing the sizeable impact of grocery prices and housing costs on their families, a new Fox News national poll conducted between September 13-16 found.
More than 60% of voters indicate that grocery prices (66%) and housing costs (60%) pose a significant challenge for their families, up from 62% and 47% respectively back in May.
Read more: Overseas votes could swing US election results in battleground states
Various demographic groups are now viewing housing costs as a major problem. Specifically, there has been a 13-point increase overall in the number of people who see housing costs as a significant issue. However, this increase is not uniform and varies across different groups:
Men saw the largest rise, with a 16-point increase in those reporting housing costs as a major problem. White voters and non-college graduates also experienced a notable 15-point increase. Similarly, Republicans registered a 15-point rise. Older voters (aged 65 and above) saw a 14-point increase. Both Democrats and voters under 45 saw a 13-point rise.
Meanwhile, almost 48% of voters said gas prices are a major problem, near where it was in May.
As a result, high prices have become the most significant factor motivating voters to participate in the upcoming election. Four out of ten voters (39%) identify high prices as their primary concern, followed by 32% saying it is immigration, 29% preventing the opposing party from winning, 27% abortion, 26% violent crime, 9% the candidate’s race, and 7% the candidate’s gender.
Read more: Survey insights reveal 2024 US Presidential race dynamics
The top motivating issues for Democrats are abortion (39%) and preventing the other side from winning (37%). In contrast, both Republicans and independents prioritize immigration (50% for Republicans and 27% for independents) and high prices (49% for Republicans and 40% for independents).
Voters eyeing candidates' economic policies
The economy remains the most important issue for voters. In fact, 39% of voters identify the economy as their primary concern, while immigration (16%) and abortion (15%) trail significantly behind as the second and third issues, respectively. All other issues surveyed rank much lower, with support of less than 10%.
When looking at specific political groups: Democrats are divided between two key issues: abortion (27%) and the economy (25%). Republicans and independents, however, are aligned in ranking the economy as their top priority (50% for Republicans and 45% for independents). Their second concern is immigration, with 30% of Republicans and 13% of independents citing it as their next most important issue.
Read more: US healthcare system comes in last among peer nations, report reveals
In terms of who voters believe can better manage key priorities, former President Donald Trump holds an advantage on two of the top three issues. He is favored by 5 points on handling the economy and by 10 points on immigration. On the issue of abortion, however, more voters trust Vice President Kamala Harris, who leads by 16 points.
When it comes to handling taxes, voters rate both Trump and Harris equally. However, Harris has a 9-point lead over Trump when it comes to helping the middle class.
"The issue profile of this election continues to favor Trump," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson. "But his edge on economic issues has decreased, probably due to Harris’ messaging on housing costs and taxes, both of which target the middle class and appear to be paying off."
Overall, the Vice President holds a narrow 2-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup, with 50% of voters supporting Harris and 48% supporting the former President. However, this difference falls within the margin of error, indicating that the race is effectively tied.
"One reason the horse race is so tight is that a handful of voters who trust Trump on the economy and immigration still back Harris and a handful of those trusting Harris on abortion and climate favor Trump," says Dana Blanton, lead of the Fox News polling group.
Read more: Violence, instability at forefront of US politics: The Guardian
Voters’ perceptions of past and current economic policies are influencing their views on who can better manage the economy.
Trump's advantage on the economy is largely supported by voters' more positive memories of his administration's policies. By a 17-point margin, more voters believe that Trump’s policies were beneficial rather than harmful. In contrast, the Biden administration's policies are viewed less favorably, with voters saying by a 24-point margin that these policies have been more harmful than helpful.
When breaking it down by party: Democrats are divided in their views on Biden’s economic policies, with half (50%) saying they are beneficial. Republicans overwhelmingly believe Biden's policies are harmful, with 87% holding that view, and a majority of independents (52%) share the same sentiment.
Regarding Trump’s policies: 55% of Democrats say they were harmful, while a vast majority of Republicans (86%) view them as helpful. Independents are split, with 39% seeing Trump’s policies as helpful, 32% considering them harmful, and 29% believing they made no difference.
Read more: X chatbot sparks misinformation concern ahead of 2024 US election
"The perception that Trump’s policies helped more than Biden’s creates some heavy baggage for Harris in this campaign and shows why ‘turning the page’ is a central theme she’s tried to stress," says Anderson.
Bipartisan concerns
Negative views on the economy are cutting across party lines and affecting perceptions of the president's performance.
Approximately 4 in 10 voters (39%) believe that imposing tariffs on products harms the economy, while 36% think tariffs help and 2 in 10 feel tariffs make no difference.
Although economic discontent isn’t as severe as the peak of 84% dissatisfaction during Biden’s presidency, 70% of voters currently have a negative view of the economy, while only 29% have a positive outlook. This negative sentiment is prevalent among most Republicans (90%), a majority of independents (77%), and nearly half of Democrats (48%).
As for President Biden's job performance, his approval rating remains relatively stable at 42%, with 58% disapproving, consistent with numbers since July.
However, despite current economic concerns, there is growing hope for an improved future among specific demographic groups, with 41% of voters now believing that life for the next generation will improve. This marks a significant increase from 25% when the question was last asked two years ago, and it is close to the high of 42% recorded in August 2012
This rise in optimism compared to 2022 is largely driven by several key groups: Voters without a college degree have shown a 21-point increase in optimism. Voters earning less than $50,000 annually have increased their optimism by 20 points. Nonwhite voters are 19 points more hopeful about the future. Democrats have seen an 18-point increase in optimism, as have men. Voters under 30 also report a 16-point rise in their outlook for future generations.
