A former Israeli intelligence officer is cautioning that Syria is on the verge of alarming developments, warning that instability could intensify in the coming weeks.

Hanan Geffen, the former commander of the Israeli military intelligence Unit 8200, said that serious unrest is looming and suggested that US envoy Tom Barrack risks becoming a “tragic figure” in the Syrian file.

In remarks to i24NEWS, Geffen explained that Barrack “is a friend of Donald Trump and a businessman who knows people, but he does not know the Middle East.”

He added that Interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa “knows how to present himself to diplomats, while Barrack ignores intelligence officers who are well-informed about the Syrian arena.”

Tom Barrack does not understand West Asia

Geffen argued that Barrack does not grasp the complexity of Syria’s realities. “Al-Sharaa knows how to market himself in a suit and tie while meeting diplomats. Barrack does not listen to the intelligence officers who understand Syria well and who warn him that he is mistaken. He does not grasp the reality in Syria, and what happened in Sweida will repeat itself,” he told i24NEWS.

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He further predicted that Barrack will be forced to face the consequences of his miscalculations, saying, “In the coming weeks, we will be talking about Tom Barrack again, as new events emerge in Syria and he realizes he has made a grave mistake in thinking he can represent American interests.”

Fragile peace in Sweida

The warnings come as Sweida, the Druze-majority province, continues to face irregular violations of the ceasefire. In July, intense clashes between Druze factions and Bedouin groups left nearly 100 people dead and more than 200 injured.

According to reports, more than 1,000 people have been killed in Sweida executions and sectarian violence since the beginning of the unrest. Armed groups have attacked several villages, with homes in al-Tira set ablaze during the fighting.

Unrest expected in minority regions

Geffen suggested that unrest could soon erupt either in Kurdish-majority regions or in the Alawite heartland, saying that such turmoil would expose the fragility of the current Syrian regime.

“At that point, the Americans will realize that there is a serious problem with this system, and everything will come to a halt, including aid and support for the Syrian administration,” he warned.

These fears are reinforced by broader sectarian violence. Along Syria’s coast, more than 1,400 Alawites have been killed since March in systematic massacres carried out under the watch of armed factions linked to the new Syrian authority.

Geffen also drew attention to the fragile economic foundations of Syria’s new administration. He noted to i24NEWS that “the Qataris are currently covering salaries, but this situation will change. What we see today is limited to diplomatic activity, conferences, and smiles, while on the ground, nothing tangible is taking place.”

Meanwhile, US envoy Tom Barrack has voiced full support for Ahmad al-Sharaa’s regime and has promoted the lifting of sanctions as a “strategic fresh start.”