F-16 jets to have minimal impact on progress of Ukraine war: Report

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On Friday, during the G7 summit in Hiroshima,  US President Joe Biden announced that Washington will endorse supplying Kiev with F-16 fighter jets and will support efforts to train Kiev's pilots. 

The Ukrainian President has long sought F-16s from his partners to bolster Ukraine's airforce. Kiev's repeated pleas for F-16s have been constantly met with refusal, in fear of escalation with Russia, until recently. 

After the US's approval to supply Ukraine with a number of F-16 Fighting Falcon, Zelensky immediately praised it as a "historic decision": saying that it would "greatly enhance our army in the sky."

In a report for Responsible Statecraft, Daniel Davis contends that F-16s won't fundamentally alter the course of the war and raises questions about the eventual objective of the US for deciding to deploy them in Ukraine. 

On Saturday, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Kiev was still not ready for F-16s and that the United States and its allies would choose which nations and how many would provide Kiev with these aircraft.

Late Deployment

Zelensky told German broadcaster ZDF that while being "very happy" about the donors' consensus on fighter jets. He also does not expect them to be delivered immediately.

"I do not think that the decision means we will have these means of defense tomorrow. We will have to prepare ourselves. But still, it is a great decision," Zelensky told the broadcaster.

The untimely deployment of the F-16s is one of the cited factors in the report that would curb the effectiveness of the. 

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Ukraine expects to receive the jets by next fall, but even upon delivery, they will not be ready to be deployed. 

Davis assesses that it would take a long time to adequately train Ukrainian pilots and maintenance crews to be able to fly the jets into combat. 

Back in February, US Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl said that it made no sense to begin training Ukrainians on F-16 fighter jets given that they may never receive the system, but hypothetically estimated that it would take between 18 months and 24 months to finalize the process of delivery and training to have the jets. 

"The process to identify F-16s from partner countries, get them airworthy and then deliver them with the full contingent of maintenance supplies, spare parts, and ammunition, will likely take into 2024," Davis writes. 

Combat Capacity 

The efficiency of the F-16 fighter is conditioned upon its deployment as part of an integrated system; which makes the jet a lot less capable without the complementary assets that it would be integrated with such as the E-3 Sentry AWACS which the Ukranian forces don't own. 

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Furthermore, the Russian S-300 air defenses and the more advanced S-400 are capable of downing the F-16s, which despite being one of the best fourth-generation fighter jets in the world has no stealth potential that would allow it to bypass the Russian air defense systems. 

"While the F-16 is more capable than the MiG-29s the Ukrainians have been using, it is still vulnerable to attack by Russia’s air defenses," the report reads.  

Securing Complimentary Donors 

Lastly, there is the question of who will provide the aircraft. The United States has provided the bulk of support for Ukraine, financial and lethal aid. If Washington authorizes the supply of  U.S.-produced F-16s, that is a choice it can make. But other wealthy nations, such as those in Europe, should be providing the airframes, not the United States. However, wealthy European countries like Germany are more careful about angering Russia for fear of escalation and spillover. 

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