Gaza casualty figures mask a much bigger horror, new study shows

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: News websites
11 May 2025 15:25
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A new study estimates that Gaza’s death toll may be 46% to 107% higher than official figures, suggesting up to 109,000 people may have been killed since the start of the Israeli genocide.

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Palestinians pray over the bodies of people killed in the Israeli bombardment who were brought from the Shifa hospital before burying them in a mass grave in the town of Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023. (AP)

The true Gaza death toll since the start of "Israel's" aggression in October 2023 may be significantly higher than current official estimates, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.

The study suggests that between 77,000 and 109,000 people may have been killed, far exceeding the Gaza Health Ministry’s figures.

As of May 5, 2025, the Gaza Health Ministry reported 52,615 killings resulting from Israeli airstrikes, shelling, and the collapse of Gaza’s health system.

The Ministry’s data are compiled from two primary sources: hospitals across Gaza and an online form that allows families to report killings, often in areas inaccessible due to continued attacks.

The Lancet Gaza study reviewed three separate datasets: hospital records, online civilian death submissions, and a third, independently compiled list based on social media obituaries and death announcements. Researchers then analyzed the degree of overlap between the lists to determine whether deaths were being fully captured.

What they found was stark: limited overlap among the datasets suggested substantial underreporting. In some demographic categories, each list contained different names, implying that even combined, they might not fully reflect the real war casualties in Gaza.

Comparing data: Hospital reports, online submissions, and obituaries

By comparing the three lists, researchers concluded that the actual death toll is likely 46% to 107% higher than the Gaza Health Ministry’s official count. Applying that range to the most recent data suggests that up to 109,000 Palestinians may have been killed since October 7, 2023, equivalent to roughly 4–5% of Gaza’s pre-war population.

The researchers project that the rate of undercounting has likely remained consistent since the end of their initial dataset, which covered up to June 30, 2024. Extending their findings forward, they estimate that the true Gaza death toll lies between 77,000 and 109,000 as of spring 2025.

These findings cast new light on the underreported deaths in Gaza, especially amid ongoing Israeli destruction of health infrastructure and communication networks that further hinder accurate documentation.

Limitations, uncertainties in measuring war casualties

The study also highlights methodological limitations. Some names were later removed from Ministry lists, 3,952 in total, raising questions about the verification process.

Additionally, deaths caused indirectly by the war, such as from the collapse of medical services, may not be fully represented.

“A definitive count of how many have died in this war will be difficult, even after it ends,” the researchers concluded. “And that may still be a long way off.”