Harris opens second path to presidential victory: WP poll
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Based on The Washington Post's polling model, Democrat nominee Kamala Harris could emerge victorious in the upcoming elections if she secures all wins from either the Sun Belt or Rust Belt states.
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VP Kamala Harris at a Biden-Harris campaign event in Washington in 2020 (AFP)
The US presidential elections are slowly approaching and several significant events have occurred within the last two months, resulting in a turning point in the polls.
The Washington Post conducted recent a poll using their own model, revealing Democrat nominee Kamala Harris as the national favorite if the elections were held today, marked by her endorsement after President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy on July 21.
As of Sunday, Harris leads The Washington Post's national polling average by obtaining two more percentage points nationally, while gaining a 2.1% point average in swing states since her endorsement, allowing her to lead in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania while closing the gap in Michigan, where her Republican counterpart Donald Trump leads by less than one percentage point.
Harris' two roads to success
The vice president is faced with two possible routes to emerge victoriously in the November elections, according to The Post's polling model, indicating that Harris can secure votes in either the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and the Sun Belt States of Georgie, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Trump would need to win in both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states re-assume a second term in office.
Since Harris has more paths to victory than Trump, the Democrat is viewed as more competitive in more states than the former president, potentially securing the required 270 votes or an electoral college victory based on the candidates' polling average.
The turning point: a series of events
At the beginning of the year, Biden was slightly falling behind Trump by 1.5% points nationally at both the national and swing state levels, but according to The Washington Post, the current president was gradually rising back into the competition. However, Biden's progress was demolished by mid-June, which decreased by three-tenths of a percentage point following his faltered performance at the first presidential candidates' debate.
The debate was just one of the few events that shaped the turning point in the elections, with Trump's attempted assassination, the nomination of JD Vance, the Republican National Convention, and, essentially, Biden's candidacy withdrawal that led to Harris' endorsement.
Biden's debate performance at the debate significantly affected his polling average, dropping more than one percentage point nationally in just one week after the event, falling behind in every single swing state.
The current president's statistics dropped in the Sun Belt states where Trump led by five percentage points, while slipping behind his Republican nominee by more than three percentage points in Michigan.
First to 270 wins
Although The Post's polling model generally indicates Harris as the favorite candidate in the presidential race, it also revealed that Trump continues to lead in the majority of the US states, potentially obtaining an electoral victory of 283 votes compared to Harris' 255.
However, this is just one potential outcome suggested by the polls. The model has also suggested a favorable result for Harris who, unlike Biden, no longer needs to depend on the Rust Belt states to secure 270 electoral votes. The vice president is essentially a small polling error away from winning the votes of Sun Belt states, obtaining victory if she wins in the states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Following this scenario, the model demonstrates that for Trump to be re-elected to the White House, he would need to secure electoral votes in both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states.
The Washington Post noted, however, that polling model results are not set since they are prone to error, which occurred in Trump's last two presidential elections.
Biden calls Trump 'genuine danger to American security'
On August 11, Biden said it was necessary for Kamala Harris to defeat Donald Trump in November.
"Watch what happens. It's a danger. He's a genuine danger to American security… We must, we must, we must defeat Trump," he told CBS News in an interview broadcast Sunday.
He stated that Americans are at "an inflection point in world history," explaining that actions taken today will influence the next 60 years. According to Biden, "Democracy is key."
