How fragile are Ukraine's defense lines?

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
29 Feb 2024 19:06

Observers argue that the extent of Ukraine's ability to thwart Russian expansion will depend on the provision of longer-range weapons and smaller systems capable of taking out vehicles.

Ukrainian servicemen evacuate injured comrade at the frontline close to the Dnipro near Kherson, Oct. 14, 2023 (AP)

NewsWeek reported on Thursday, citing military sources, that the recent capture of Avdiivka has been followed by the continuous expansion of Russian control along the frontlines.

According to the source, Ukrainian forces are "both outmanned and outgunned along the front." The recent fall of Avdiivka was in part blamed on ammunition shortages.

Since then, Russia's expansion has been "incremental" and will likely increase in the short-term as long as aid remains stalled in the West.

According to the arms-maker-funded Institute for the Study of War, the victory in the battle of Avdiivka has opened new avenues for land control in surrounding areas, and Russian forces are working rapidly to increase their presence along the frontlines before Ukrainian forces rebuild a more cohesive defense line.

⚡Russian troops liberated three more villages after Avdeevka. pic.twitter.com/AiJp82SyUZ
— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) February 28, 2024

On Monday, Dmytro Lykhovyi, spokesman for the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces, announced that his troops had pulled back from Stepove, approximately eight miles north of Avdiivka. Russian troops, on the other hand, declared they control of Tonenke to the south, along with other nearby territories.

Other think tanks found that Russian troops have expanded to other parts of Donetsk, including west of Bakhmut and eastern parts of Ivanivske.

"Avdiivka was a pyrrhic victory but a victory nonetheless. The ground behind it is flatter and the breaching of this stronghold calls into question Ukraine's overall strategy amid the hold-up in US Congress," Zev Faintuch, the senior intelligence analyst at security firm Global Guardian, told NewsWeek.

"If the [US] aid bill isn't passed soon, there will be more Avdiivkas as Russia tries to seize the opportunity to cement its gains in Donetsk," Faintuch told Newsweek.

How strong are Ukraine's defense lines?

"Behind Avdiivka, Ukraine has some defenses, but it is not a strong line," Military analyst Mike Kofman told the War on the Rocks podcast.

"The Russian military may run out of momentum, but on the other hand if they are able to fully sustain these offensives pushes over the coming year, then eventually they may find more and more open terrain," which could lead to a "potentially slippery slope."

Earlier this week, Zelensky admitted that an estimated 31,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed in two years of war. But estimates vary among observers.

"Zelensky hasn't amended his stated political goals of total territorial liberation," said Faintuch. "It's a hard sell to now tell the young folks they need to go make sacrifices in meat grinders like Bakhmut and Avdiivka to preserve the status quo, as opposed to making sacrifices for a tangible total victory."

"Ukraine is both outmanned and outgunned along the front and Zelensky is in a bind politically," he said. "Ukraine needs to adopt an active defense strategy. It can trade space for time, seeing as Ukraine is massive territorially. Russia has only really been able to advance in areas where it can amass superiority in artillery fires and manpower."

With the upcoming provision of fighter jets, observers anticipate the scale of power to be altered.

Can advanced air capabilities shift the power scale?

Observers argue that the extent of Ukraine's ability to thwart Russian expansion will depend on the provision of longer-range weapons and smaller systems capable of neutralizing vehicles from Western allies.

Denmark and the Netherlands, along with several other countries, have pledged numerous aircraft that surpass the capabilities of Ukraine's Soviet-era MiG and Sukhoi jets. However, it may take some time before these aircraft contribute to Kiev's war efforts.