IOF ultimatum war(s) of attrition or regional war: Al-Akhbar

By Sammy Ismail
Source: Al Akhbar
18 Oct 2023 12:30
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"Israel" fears Hezbollah's retaliation if a ground invasion of Gaza was to take place.

Hezbollah fighters fly flags of the party during the memorial of Sayyed Abbas al-Mousawi, Feb. 14, 2014.

The IOF treads a thin line with its two-front aggression deterrence strategy against Gaza and South Lebanon respectively, according to a report by Al Akhbar newspaper.

Senior Israeli leaders have registered that the Lebanese resistance would intensify operations in the South as the Gaza ground invasion draws imminent: recognizing that attempts at neutralizing the Palestinian resistance will not go unanswered from their Lebanese counterpart.

Israeli media indicates that the IOF expects the escalations in South Lebanon would be limited within the scope of combat days, and it wouldn't deteriorate into an all-out war because neither the IOF nor Hezbollah wants war. This follows from an Israeli assumption that Hezbollah doesn't assess the current situation to be conducive to the ultimate battle.

Bloomberg reported that insiders familiar with the #Biden administration's position indicate that the White House is worried about "Israel's" lack of a post-invasion strategy for #Gaza.#Palestine pic.twitter.com/Wpse5WFuA5
— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) October 15, 2023

The IOF has been carefully working around the deterrence equation enforced back in 2006 to avoid a retaliatory strike from Hezbollah deep within Israeli territories.

However, "Israel" fears that Hezbollah would retaliate beyond current scales if a ground invasion of Gaza was to take place. This is exacerbated by the fact that no mediator could draw out from Hezbollah a clear scope for their ongoing operations.

The report concludes that the Israeli security-intelligence establishment assesses that a regional war scenario is still not probable, but a war with Hezbollah seems to be more likely with every passing day.

Given "Israel's" adamance to proceed with a ground invasion in Gaza, three scenarios seem to be likely on the Northern front: combat days, contained war, or regional war.

However, even if the "worst case scenario" of a regional war doesn't materialize, "Israel" would be entrapped in two attrition wars in Gaza and south Lebanon.

Earlier at dawn today, the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon confirmed that its fighters targeted an Israeli Merkava tank at al-Raheb military site.

In a statement, the resistance announced that the group of martyrs Hussein al-Taweel and Mahdi Atwi targeted an Israeli Merkava tank at dawn today.

The statement pointed out that the Israeli tank was targeted at the al-Raheb site and was directly hit, leading to deaths and injuries among its crew.

#WATCH | The Islamic Resistance in #Lebanon published a video depicting a Kornet ATGM strike against an Israeli vehicle in the "Metula" settlement.
According to Israeli media, The strike led to casualties among Israeli soldiers. pic.twitter.com/0hObNErHAS
— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) October 17, 2023

On Tuesday, the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon - Hezbollah, announced that its fighters targeted an Israeli military vehicle at the "Metula" site, confirming casualties among occupation soldiers.