Labour's landmark victories has Sunak treading a tightrope

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
5 May 2024 09:15
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Sadiq Khan, aged 53, secures a decisive victory over his Conservative rival Susan Hall, winning by an 11-point margin.

Sadiq Khan speaking at an election campaign (AFP)

Labour's Sadiq Khan clinched an unprecedented third term as London's mayor on Saturday, leading his party to victory in a series of mayoral and local elections, dealing a significant blow to the ruling Conservatives ahead of an anticipated general election.

Khan, aged 53, defeated Conservative opponent Susan Hall by an 11-point margin, dashing largely dim hopes among Tories of wresting control of the UK capital from Labour for the first time since 2016.

When first elected, Khan became the first Muslim mayor of a Western capital. His victory was widely anticipated amid a national surge in support for the opposition party and challenges faced by the Tories in revitalizing their prospects.

In the West Midlands, Conservative mayor Andy Street, vying for a third term, suffered an unexpected defeat to Labour's Richard Parker, delivering a significant setback to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

The disappointing outcome only left the embattled leader with one significant victory in the Thursday elections across England. Tory mayor Ben Houchen managed to secure a win in Tees Valley, northeast England, albeit with a significantly reduced majority. The Conservative party faced a dismal set of results, finishing a humiliating third in local council tallies, having lost nearly 500 seats.

"People across the country have had enough of Conservative chaos and decline and voted for change with Labour," its leader Keir Starmer said shortly after confirmation of Parker's victory.

He called the result "phenomenal" and "beyond our expectations."

In an article published earlier on Saturday in the Daily Telegraph, Sunak acknowledged that "voters are frustrated" but attempted to make the case that Labour was "not winning in places they admit they need for a majority."

"We Conservatives have everything to fight for," Sunak stressed.

Dive deeper

Labour, who has been out of power since 2010 and suffered a heavy defeat by Boris Johnson's Conservatives in the last general election in 2019, also decisively won a parliamentary seat from the Tories.

Starmer has capitalized on this victory in the Blackpool South constituency and other achievements to call for a general election.

Sunak is obligated to call for a national vote by January 28 next year at the latest, and he has indicated that he intends to hold a poll in the latter half of 2024.

Throughout his 18 months in leadership, Labour has consistently held double-digit leads in polls, as previous Tory controversies, a growing cost-of-living crisis, and other challenges have weakened the Conservative Party's position.

During Thursday's elections, Labour was tasked with defending nearly 1,000 council seats, many of which were gained in 2021 when the party was leading in national polls. However, the situation changed following the downfall of Boris Johnson's premiership and the turbulent 49-day tenure of his successor, Liz Truss.

Ultimately, Labour lost nearly half of the seats they were defending and ended up in third place behind the smaller centrist opposition, the Liberal Democrats.

Labour secured significant victories in key mayoral races across England, including in Yorkshire, Manchester, Liverpool, and various contests throughout the Midlands.

In London, Khan garnered 44 percent of the vote, marking an increase in his margin of victory compared to the previous contest in 2021.

"It's truly an honor to be re-elected for a third term," he told supporters, accusing his Tory opponent of "fearmongering".

"We ran a campaign that was in keeping with the spirit and values of this great city, a city that regards our diversity not as a weakness, but as an almighty strength -- and one that rejects right hard-wing populism," he added.

The big picture

If the results were replicated in a nationwide contest, Labour would secure 34 percent of the vote, with the Tories falling behind by nine points, as per BBC.

In the same context, Sky News' analysis of the results projected that Labour would emerge as the largest party but would fall short of an overall majority in a general election.

There has been widespread speculation in Westminster that discontented Tory MPs might seize upon the dismal local election results as an opportunity to oust Sunak from his position.

Despite the local election results being at the lower end of expectations, the anticipated scenario of challenging Rishi Sunak's leadership has not yet come to fruition. The former interior minister and critic of Sunak, Suella Braverman, cautioned in the Sunday Telegraph that Sunak's strategy "is ineffective and requires a shift," advocating for a more assertive form of conservatism.

However, she advised against attempting to oust him, cautioning that "changing leader now won't work: the time to do so came and went."

In the meantime, polling analyst John Curtice evaluated some troubling indications for Labour, noting that the party lost control of a local authority and experienced losses of councilors elsewhere, purportedly due to its position on the ongoing Israeli genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

"These were more elections in which the impetus to defeat the Conservatives was greater than the level of enthusiasm for Labour," Curtice highlighted in the newspaper.

"Electorally, it is still far from clear that Sir Keir Starmer is the heir to (Tony) Blair."