A new balance of terror has emerged in the North, one that "Israel" cannot live with even for a "single hour," an op-ed published by Israeli newspaper Maariv on Tuesday said.

Avi Ashkenazi, the military correspondent of the newspaper, recalled in his piece the course of confrontation, the balance of combat, and the rules of engagement between Hezbollah and the occupation since before the withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.

"Any solution in the North requires decision-makers in Israel to work on dismantling this balance of terror," the author began by warning.

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According to the Ashkenazi, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was able, before the Israeli withdrawal, and over the years, to create engagement rules in his favor in the "security belt in Lebanon," where "he decided that every Israeli attack on a civilian target would lead to rocket fire on Kiryat Shmona and settlements in the Galilee," and that the targets of the rocket launches varied between "open areas and inhibited ones."

Later, this led to the debate within the occupation entity about the withdrawal to intensify, he said.

A bleak military picture

The "Four Mothers" movement led a campaign calling for withdrawal from Lebanon without any agreement, on the grounds that the Israeli soldiers' operations in the "security zone" were not to defend the settlements but to protect themselves, their positions, and their transportation routes. In exchange for presenting a bleak military picture regarding the ability to secure a high level of security for the settlements in the event of withdrawal.

Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah, who saw the internal Israeli disagreements and caught statements about an imminent withdrawal, decided to capitalize on his regional power.

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Weeks before the withdrawal, Israeli shelling hit a civilian house in southern Lebanon, Ashkenazi said. Following the aggression, Hezbollah struck Kiryat Shmona without warning, and "previous constraints by the rules of the game" set by Sayyed Nasrallah himself, led to intensive missile barrages during the Israeli holiday season while the market was bustling with people, immediately emptying the settlement's streets, turning it into a ghost town for weeks, also leading to a decision to end the school year.

Sayyed Nasrallah succeeded weeks before the withdrawal in changing the balance of terror between "Israel" and Hezbollah, the author said. Since then, the boundaries of deterrence between the two sides have been tested more than once through the capture of the Israeli soldiers in the occupied Shebaa Farms in July 2006, as well as in other operations, then "came the Second Lebanon War, which, according to Nasrallah himself, changed the equation he tried to develop and maintain."

Attacking without taking responsibility

Ashkenazi acknowledged that "Israel" has been operating secretly since 2006, claiming that it "destroyed a [Syrian] nuclear reactor without talking about it to the world," attacked Hezbollah weapon shipments without taking responsibility, and assassinated several of the Resistance group's officers without claiming it, all in an attempt to prevent Hezbollah from establishing a new balance of terror.

However, the piece adds, that since Al-Aqsa Flood Operation on October 7, Sayyed Nasrallah has succeeded in "reviving his dream and creating a new combat equation: bombing the Lebanese Bekaa will lead to rockets fired at Meron, or bombing a house in Nabatieh will lead to a volley of 20 or 30 rockets at Kiryat Shmona, or a drone on Arab al-Aramsha."

The Maariv correspondent concluded by saying, "Israel is in trouble, for in addition to the never-ending war on the northern borders since October 7, a new balance of terror has emerged [in the North] that Israel can't live with even for a single hour."

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