Just three days before the election, there was a surprising event in Turkish politics; Muharrem Ince, one of the four Turkish presidential candidates, suddenly dropped out. This unexpected move instantly changed the dynamics of the race.

There were many speculations regarding the outcome of the presidential elections after his withdrawal. Many anticipated that his initial votes could be directed in favor of CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, while others argued that the votes would be split between the incumbent President and the main opposition candidate.

Although Ince's withdrawal took place after millions of votes had already been cast abroad, it may have unintentionally helped the opposition by shifting the focus toward the two main candidates. With the current shift in the political landscape, the presidential race has become even more intriguing as both candidates reevaluate their strategies.

The opposition alliance could potentially strengthen its position with the withdrawal of Ince in favor of Kilicdaroglu, as a portion of Ince's voter base originated from the opposition. Ince did not receive votes from the ruling alliance, but rather from the opposition alliance. However, the consequences of Ince's withdrawal from the presidential race go beyond his voter base or the original voting bloc. Another significant voting bloc, the nationalist bloc within the opposition alliance, has decided, according to opinion polls, to vote or support Ince in the presidential race.

Kilicdaroglu's alliance bites again

It is important to note that Ince's withdrawal from the presidential race may not have a significant impact on the electoral competition, despite the potential influence of his voter bloc and the nationalist bloc within the opposition alliance. While these factors could potentially tilt the balance either in favor of Kilicdaroglu or Erdogan, it is important to consider that the alliance between Kilicdaroglu and the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party could also impact the election dynamics. Additionally, it may still be challenging for either candidate to secure a win in the presidential elections during the first round of voting.

To clarify further, Ince's first voting bloc is relatively small, consisting of a solid electoral base that makes up no more than 1.5% of the total votes. This base originally supported the Republican People's Party but moved to Ince's new party after he split from it following the last presidential elections in 2018. In contrast, Ince's second voting bloc is much larger and consists of nationalistic opposition voters who switched their support to him after Kilicdaroglu formed an alliance with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party. These voters are less likely to be swayed by Kilicdaroglu's candidacy and remain a key support base for Ince in the presidential race.

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According to some analysts, there is a possibility that Kilicdaroglu can attract Ince's 1.5% electoral base if he actively seeks their support. However, it is highly unlikely that Kilicdaroglu will be able to win over the nationalistic opposition votes that were the primary reason for their support of Muharrem Ince. These voters were dissatisfied with Kilicdaroglu's previous alliance with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party and are unlikely to shift their support to him. That said, Ince took to Twitter earlier today to call on his supporters not to allow "FETO members and separatists to be happy," which some analysts interpreted as a call to vote against Kilicdaroglu. In a separate tweet, he also urged his supporters to vote for him, despite his recent withdrawal from the presidential race. It remains to be seen how these statements will impact the dynamics of the upcoming election.

Bölücüleri, FETÖ’cüleri sevindirme.
Oylar Memleket Partisi’ne!

— Muharrem İNCE (@vekilince) May 13, 2023

Sandıktan vazgeçme,
Oylar Memleket Partisi’ne!

— Muharrem İNCE (@vekilince) May 13, 2023

Moreover, even if Ince calls on his supporters to back Kilicdaroglu, it is unlikely to sway those who are dissatisfied with the opposition’s recent alliance. The main issue for these voters is Kilicdaroglu's recent partnership, and it will be difficult for him to win them back. Erdogan may benefit from the crisis facing the opposition due to Ince's split from the Republican People's Party and his competition with Kilicdaroglu if the latter fails to reassure the nationalistic opposition votes that shifted to Ince. Kilicdaroglu's ability to win back these voters depends on how effectively he can address their concerns regarding his alliance with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party. Recently, he has tried to appeal to these voters by describing the party as a "terrorist organization". However, it remains to be seen if this strategy will be effective in winning back their support.

Recalculating Ogan's chances

Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan had a small chance of winning the presidential elections or even making it to the second round, but their influential role in the presidential elections is to force the elections into a runoff. This means that as long as there are other candidates besides Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, the two sides will not be able to settle the elections in the first round. Now that Muharrem Ince has withdrawn from the presidential race, the chances of settling the presidential elections in the first round have increased, either in favor of Kilicdaroglu or President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

However, analysts argue that the continued candidacy of Ogan is likely to impact the outcome of the presidential elections and could potentially lead to a runoff. This is due to two main reasons. Firstly, opinion polls suggest that Ogan has a solid voting bloc of between 3% and 4%. Secondly, the nationalistic opposition votes that previously supported Ince may now shift their support to Ogan. This means that Ogan's voter percentage could potentially increase and have a significant impact on the outcome of the elections. Thus, it is likely that Ogan's candidacy will continue to push the elections into a runoff, prolonging the political uncertainty and tension in the country.

Voter inaccuracy 

In a different scenario, Ince's withdrawal may have significant implications for voter turnout and accuracy in the upcoming election. One potential outcome is that it could trigger inaccuracies in voter turnout. Ince was seen as particularly appealing to younger, more progressive voters who were disillusioned with the current government. With Ince now out of the race, these voters may be less likely to turn out to vote in the election.

This could lead to an inaccurate representation of the electorate, with a higher percentage of conservative, older voters than would have been the case had Ince remained in the race. This could have implications for the outcome of the election, as the voting preferences of younger and more progressive voters may not be fully reflected in the results.

Overall, the implications of Ince's withdrawal from the presidential race in Turkey remain to be seen. However, the potential effects on voter turnout and the accuracy of the electorate, as well as the competitiveness of the election, could be significant. Despite these potential implications, it is worth noting that some argue that Ince's withdrawal may not have as significant an impact on the election outcome as some might think.  Even with Ince in the race, Erdogan would have still posed a formidable challenge to the opposition. 

It's worth noting that in the Turkish presidential elections, the winning candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes to secure the presidency in the first round. If none of the candidates achieve this threshold, the two candidates with the highest percentage of votes will proceed to a second round of voting. As such, Ince's withdrawal may indeed increase the chances of settling the presidential elections in the first round, but it's still uncertain whether Kilicdaroglu or Erdogan will be able to secure the necessary percentage of votes to win outright. The outcome of the elections will likely hinge on the ability of the two sides to mobilize their respective voter bases and sway undecided voters.