Nearly half of Democrats reject AIPAC-backed candidates, poll finds
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As the Israeli genocide in Gaza reshapes American politics, Democrats face a reckoning over money, morality, and the influence of pro-"Israel" lobby groups.
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Then-Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) 2020 Conference, Monday, March 2, 2020, in Washington (AP)
As discontent with "Israel" deepens among Democratic voters after more than two years of genocide in Gaza, a new internal poll suggests that financial support from the pro-"Israel" lobby may now be a liability rather than an asset for Democrats competing in primary races.
The survey, conducted by Democratic firm Upswing Strategies, polled 850 registered Democratic voters across competitive congressional districts in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Participants were asked about their views on the "Israel"-Palestine struggle and their perceptions of lobbying groups such as the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
AIPAC, one of Washington’s most powerful lobbying groups, backed 152 Democratic candidates during the 2024 elections, spending more than $28 million, and played a significant role in unseating several progressive lawmakers, including former Representatives Cori Bush of Missouri and Jamaal Bowman of New York.
48% of Democratic voters 'could never support' AIPAC-funded congressional candidate
According to the Upswing poll, nearly half of Democratic voters (48%) in these battleground districts said they “could never support” a congressional candidate funded by AIPAC or similar pro-"Israel" organizations. More than a quarter (28%) expressed this view strongly. By contrast, only 40% said they “could see” themselves supporting a candidate linked to AIPAC if they agreed with their positions on other issues, though only 10% felt that way strongly.
The poll’s findings, shared on social media by Illinois reporter Matthew Eadie of Evanston Now, have reportedly circulated among Democratic campaign operatives in multiple competitive districts since early September. Eadie noted that the results are “circulating among Democrats in over a half-dozen competitive primaries in mostly Illinois.”
With Senator Dick Durbin’s seat opening in 2026, several Illinois representatives are expected to run, setting off a scramble for their House seats, including some who have enjoyed long-standing support from pro-"Israel" donors. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, for instance, received more than $63,000 from pro-"Israel" groups in the 2023–24 cycle and roughly $269,000 since his first campaign in 2016. Representative Robin Kelly has taken in about $109,000 from such groups since 2012.
Half a century of political norms unravels before our eyes
Pro-"Israel" organizations are also expected to once again target the Chicago-based district of Representative Danny Davis, who has repeatedly faced primary challenges from progressive activist Kina Collins. During the 2024 race, AIPAC’s affiliated political action committee, the United Democracy Project, spent roughly half a million dollars on ads attacking Collins, who had described "Israel’s" blockade of Gaza as a “war crime".
Another Illinois progressive, Representative Delia Ramirez, who has called "Israel’s" campaign in Gaza a “genocide” and introduced legislation to suspend US military aid to "Israel", was the target of over $157,000 in digital ads and mailers from the Democratic Majority for "Israel" in 2022. However, by 2024, pro-"Israel" groups opted not to challenge her re-election bid, calculating that her local support base was too strong.
Similar dynamics are unfolding beyond Illinois. Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, a long-time AIPAC target, faced no major challenge in 2024 due to her enduring popularity. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Representative Haley Stevens, one of the House’s most outspoken defenders of "Israel", received more than $5.4 million from AIPAC and allied groups in 2024 to help defeat progressive Jewish incumbent Andy Levin, whom AIPAC’s former president once labeled “the most corrosive member of Congress to the US-Israel relationship.”
Significant mood shift among Democratic voters
Although Upswing’s data did not specify district-level results, the findings point to a significant mood shift among Democratic voters. In an era defined by "Israel’s" genocide in Gaza, support from the "Israel" lobby appears increasingly out of step with the Democratic base. The changing tide was illustrated recently by Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, who announced he would return AIPAC donations, saying, “I’m a friend of Israel, but not of its current government, and AIPAC’s mission is to back that government.”
The poll also reinforced broader trends showing a collapse in sympathy for "Israel" among Democrats. Respondents expressed overwhelmingly positive views of Palestine and international organizations such as the United Nations and Doctors Without Borders, while describing "Israel" and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in sharply negative terms.
While issues like accountability for President Donald Trump and cost-of-living concerns remained top priorities, 53% of Democratic voters rated “putting pressure on the Israeli government to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza” as a 10 out of 10 in importance, and 72% rated it at least an 8.
Peter Beinart, editor-at-large of Jewish Currents, summarized the shift bluntly, saying, “It’s astonishing how quickly the politics are moving.” He added that Democrats “don’t fear AIPAC. They fear being associated with AIPAC. The political rules of the last almost half-century are changing before our eyes.”
