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Negative Israeli battlefield calculations spur ceasefire talks: WSJ

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: The Wall Street Journal + AFP
5 Jul 2024 21:57
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The Israeli security establishment now views the ongoing attacks on the Gaza Strip as possibly counterproductive to the occupation, pressuring the government into a deal.

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An Israeli occupation soldier sits in an armored personnel carrier in an area outside the Gaza Strip, in occupied Palestine, on November 21, 2012. (AP)

Talks of the positive atmosphere surrounding ceasefire talks and a prisoner exchange deal in the Gaza Strip, spurred by recent feedback submitted by Hamas to mediators, have taken center stage in discussions of the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza.

However, Hamas' positive feedback has not been the only factor influencing the revival of ceasefire talks, as the movement has been positive and flexible throughout the mediated negotiations process.

According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), a shift in Israeli battlefield calculations has led analysts to conclude that the Israeli military and security establishment is pushing the Benjamin Netanyahu-led Israeli government to finalize a deal with the Palestinian Resistance.

"Time is passing and all sides are realizing that time is not working in their favor, especially the Israeli side," said Ofer Shelah, a former Israeli lawmaker and military analyst with the "Israeli Institute for National Security Studies" (INSS), as quoted by WSJ.

Netanyahu's Rafah myth busted: War goals remain far-fetched

Israeli occupation forces are set to transition into the infamous third stage of operations in Rafah, which is the case with all other areas in the Gaza Strip. This stage will see a reduced number of Israeli forces deployed around the city and smaller incursions into specific neighborhoods in the southernmost city of the Gaza Strip.

As occupation forces transition to this new phase of operations, and with Palestinian Resistance fighters maintaining control in Rafah and other cities in the Gaza Strip, Israeli hopes for eliminating Hamas appear increasingly unrealistic. The aftermath of the Israeli military command transitioning to the third stage of operations in Gaza City's al-Shujaiya and Jabalia is clear evidence of the Israeli strategy's failure to achieve the declared war goals.

WSJ reports that the Israeli government and military could always point to the necessity of continuing to fight the Palestinian Resistance, as long as the attack on Rafah was in full swing. This is due to the fact that Israeli officials have painted a picture of Rafah being the last remaining stronghold of the Palestinian Resistance and that its invasion would greatly facilitate the achievement of war goals, such as the release of Israeli captives or the destruction of the Resistance's capabilities.

As the invasion shifts into a much lower-intensity phase, with no significant progress toward achieving Israeli war goals, justifying the continued attacks and occupation in the Gaza Strip becomes increasingly difficult.

"Despite all of the bravado, the Israeli security establishment is coming to the understanding…that the possible achievements of continued fighting in Gaza are minimal, perhaps even negative," Shelah explained.

Difficulties become more apparent when examining the situation of the Northern Front between "Israel" and Lebanon. WSJ claims that the "simmering conflict" with Hezbollah means that the moment "could be ripe" for an agreement.

Hamas official says expects quick Israeli response to ceasefire 'ideas'

In the context of ongoing talks in Doha for a ceasefire, a member of Hamas' Political Bureau, Osama Hamdan, spoke to Agence France-Presse (AFP), revealing that the movement expects a swift Israeli response, "likely today or tomorrow morning."

Hamdan reiterated that the Islamic Resistance Movement had only submitted its feedback to a previous proposal to Egyptian and Qatari mediators, rather than an official response, as was misreported by Western media outlets.

An Israeli delegation, led by the head of the Mossad intelligence agency David Barnea, arrived in Doha on Friday to move the process forward.

"If the response is positive, then we will discuss these ideas in detail because we will enter into the implementation discussion of these ideas, which... will not take long," Hamdan said in regard to the ongoing talks in Doha.

"The Israeli side has made every effort to complicate matters and obstruct progress," the Hamas official added.

If the talks end up in failure, Hamdan stressed that the Resistance will keep fighting the occupation, stressing that "the capabilities of the Resistance remain in good condition."