On the eve of former President Donald Trump's likely 2024 campaign launch, the conservative Club for Growth is issuing a warning shot — and signaling that it may support his main adversary, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

POLITICO reported that the anti-tax organization, which was once a staunch Trump supporter but then ditched him, unmasked a polling memo on Monday that showed the former president trailing DeSantis by double digits in one-on-one matchups in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states on the GOP nominating calendar.

DeSantis also leads Trump by large proportions in Florida, his common home state, and Georgia, which will hold a runoff election for one of its Senate seats on December 6, as per the report.

In a statement, Club for Growth president David McIntosh said: “Republicans need to be united behind a strong candidate and a platform that shows voters real solutions to beat Biden and the Democrats in 2024. Our polling shows that Republican primary voters recognize Trump’s insults against Republicans as hollow and counterproductive, and it’s taking a significant toll on his support.”

McIntosh argued that the polls suggested Trump "might help Republicans" by postponing his expected Tuesday announcement that he's running for president until after the Georgia runoff.

The Club's decision to oppose Trump is part of a growing tide of discontent within the Republican Party.

Republicans furious, blaming Trump and GOP 

It is worth noting that a number of party figures blamed Trump for Republicans' weaker-than-expected performance in the elections, suggesting that it's time to move on.

As per the polling memo, which is based on survey data collected between November 11 and 13, DeSantis leads Trump in Iowa by 11 percentage points and by 15 points in New Hampshire.

Related News

Trump’s approval rating falls to new low in second term: Poll

Harris: Dems 'reckless' to defer to Biden on 2024 re-election bid

DeSantis' numbers have improved since August, when earlier Club for Growth polls showed that Trump had a 15-point lead in Iowa and a tie in New Hampshire, the report added.

The memo also reveals that DeSantis leads Trump by 26 points in Florida and 20 points in Georgia.

In August, DeSantis led Trump by 7% in Florida and 6% in Georgia. WPA Intelligence, a Republican firm, performed the polls, which surveyed potential GOP voters.

Ally-turned-foe

The memo's release is the latest twist in the Club for Growth's tangled relationship with Trump. After slamming Trump during the 2016 election, the conservative group became an ally throughout his presidency. 

Following Trump's 2020 election defeat, McIntosh served as an informal consultant to the former president, helping to determine the former president's endorsements in important midterm elections.

However, debacles emerged during the Ohio Senate primary, when Trump supported Republican J.D. Vance while the Club for Growth supported Josh Mandel. 

McIntosh denied Trump's request that the Club for Growth withdraw its support for Mandel.

The battle heated up earlier this fall when the Club for Growth donated $2 million to DeSantis' reelection campaign and another $1 million to a super PAC affiliated with another potential Trump challenger, South Carolina Sen. 

Unsurprisingly, the Club for Growth began incorporating a question in its surveys in January asking if voters would support Trump or DeSantis in a 2024 primary. 

The polling was part of a larger effort to gauge Trump's popularity inside the party and his influence in GOP primaries ahead of the 2022 elections.

Read more: Trump threatens DeSantis, warns against running for president in 2024