Responsible Statecraft: China's rise assisted by EU influence decline

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Responsible Statecraft
14 Mar 2023 15:50

A new report by Responsible Statecraft outlines the reason behind the EU's inability to broker a Saudi-Iran deal allowing China to become a significant player in the Middle East.

China's then-Foreign Minister Wang Yi stands next to the EU and Chinese flags as he waits for the arrival of European Council President Charles Michel prior to a meeting at the Europa building in Brussels, Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2019 (AP).

It was China and not the European Union (EU) that facilitated the Iran-Saudi agreement to restore diplomatic relations. Responsible Statecraft, in a new piece, begged the question as to why the EU did not have a leading role in this new political breakthrough, noting that the new Middle East agreement "exposed the limits of the European Union’s influence."

Primarily, it is worth noting that China is considered, according to the EU's “Strategic Outlook” Joint Communication of 12 March 2019, a "partner for cooperation and negotiation, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival."

As such, Brussels was "careful to avoid explicitly crediting China" according to the report, but did nonetheless declare readiness to engage “with all actors in the Middle East in a gradual and inclusive approach, in full transparency.”

While some might have argued that the decline in the EU's Middle East role came as a result of its increased engagement in the war in Ukraine, it remained, Responsible Statecraft explained, that the EU's declining influence in the Middle East precedes the conflict and was at least partially a result of the bloc's reluctance to use the leverage it formerly had in that region.

Decline of EU influence

The think-tank argued that China played the role typically played by the EU in the Middle East, which it summarized as "talk to all sides and back it up with economic muscle." The report outlined that the EU had even greater leverage in the region than the US, as its relation with Iran continued even after former US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal.

The report even noted that Iran maintained its compliance "for more than a year in the apparently vain hope that Brussels would match its political statements with real financial commitments to keep the deal afloat." Even then, after Brussels failed Iran, the E3 [France, Germany, UK] launched INSTEX, a trading instrument, which was used only once out of fear of the US unilateral sanctions. Significantly the report wrote on that note that "to add insult to injury, INSTEX’s European creators blamed Iran for its failure."

Responsible Statecraft also argued that while the EU has offered multiple proposals, on multiple occasions, it remained that it never truly followed through with most of them on a convincing strategical level.

The EU, according to the think tank, failed to address or play a role in ensuring or addressing security concerns in the Middle East, and rather its role was transformed to "a technocratic manager of relations." Even this new role was limited to a handful of countries as the EU failed to allegedly remain a "strategic player determined to help shape the region’s geopolitics."

Significantly, the think-tank also drew light on the fact that Saudi Arabia, the West's key partner in the region, agreed to offer such a significant diplomatic win to China, a rival, "speaks volumes".

In conclusion, Responsible Statecraft stated that China rose on the global level, making the "broader shifts towards greater multipolarity and intra-regional agency in the Middle East" more visible. But that rise was further facilitated by the EU's declining influence in the region.

Iran announces new era in the region

Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the advisor to the Iranian leader for military affairs, described the Iranian-Saudi agreement as "a political earthquake" that signals "the end of US hegemony in the region."

"The post-US phase has started in the Gulf region with the Iranian-Saudi agreement," he tersely stated.

Safavi voiced hope that the region will progress toward long-term security and peace as a result of the Iran-Saudi agreement, emphasizing that the strength of the US and Zionists is dwindling.

“In my opinion, the agreement is in the interests of the two countries and the Western Asia region," he said.

Safavi's remarks came shortly after Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations and reopen missions in respective countries after a series of talks brokered in Beijing, China, under the auspices of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Simultaneously, several Arab countries reflected their views on the re-establishment of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia most notably the UAE, Egypt, and Qatar. The countries touched on the subject by expressing hope for the future.