Azerbaijani and US officials suspect that a Russian surface-to-air missile may have been responsible for the deadly crash of an Azerbaijani passenger plane, reports indicated Thursday. However, the Kremlin has warned against speculating before the investigation is completed.

The Azerbaijan Airlines jet crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on Wednesday, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. The plane, an Embraer 190, had been en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny in Chechnya, but veered off course over the Caspian Sea under unclear circumstances.

A pro-government Azerbaijani website, Caliber, citing unnamed sources, reported that the plane was likely downed by a Russian missile fired from a Pantsir-S air defense system. This claim was also picked up by The New York Times, Euronews, and Anadolu Agency.

Some military and aviation experts speculated that the missile strike could have been accidental, possibly due to the plane flying in an area where Ukrainian drone activity had been reported.

A former French BEA air accident expert noted that the wreckage showed "a lot of shrapnel" damage, which he described as "reminiscent" of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was downed by a surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

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Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov cautioned against premature conclusions, stating, "It would be wrong to make any hypotheses before the investigation's conclusions."

Azerbaijani government sources told Euronews that "shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight." A US official, also speaking anonymously, said early evidence suggested a Russian anti-aircraft system had struck the plane.

Kazakhstan's news agency Kazinform reported that two black boxes had been recovered from the wreckage. Initially, Azerbaijan Airlines had suggested that the crash was caused by the plane flying through a flock of birds, but later retracted that statement.

Kazakh authorities confirmed that 38 people were killed, with 29 survivors, including three children. Eleven of the injured are in intensive care, according to Kazakhstan's Health Ministry.

In response to the tragedy, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared Thursday a national day of mourning and canceled his planned visit to Russia for an informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

"I extend my condolences to the families of those who lost their lives in the crash... and wish a speedy recovery to the injured," Aliyev posted on social media.

Flight Radar data showed the plane deviating from its normal route, crossing the Caspian Sea, and circling the area before crashing near Aktau. The plane's passengers included 37 Azerbaijanis, six Kazakhs, three Kyrgyz, and 16 Russians.

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to Aliyev in a phone conversation, with Kremlin spokesman Peskov confirming the call.