Saudi-"Israel" normalization in jeopardy due to Hamas operation: Axios

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Axios
8 Oct 2023 19:24
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If "Israel" decides to launch a ground invasion of Gaza in response to Saturday's operation, there is a heightened risk of violence spreading to other areas in the region.

President Joe Biden pauses as he speaks about the September jobs report, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Friday, Oct. 6, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Writer Barak Ravid wrote for Axios on Sunday that US President Joe Biden's efforts to broker a peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and "Israel" are facing a setback due to Hamas' unexpected resistance operation.

Now, both the White House and the 'international community' are preparing for a potentially intensified Israeli counter-retaliation, which raises concerns about prolonged and widened conflicts in the Middle East.

If "Israel" decides to launch a ground invasion of Gaza in response to Saturday's operation, there is a heightened risk of violence spreading to other areas in the region.

Ravid believes that this scenario could significantly complicate, if not render impossible, Biden's mission to facilitate a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and "Israel."

The conflict is spreading

Health authorities on Sunday reported that the ongoing attack has resulted in the loss of over 600 Israeli lives and 370 Palestinian lives, with thousands more sustaining injuries.

On Sunday, Hezbollah launched rockets into "Israel," prompting "Israel" to respond with artillery fire.

Additionally, an Egyptian policeman shot Israeli tourists in Alexandria on Sunday, resulting in the deaths of two Israelis and one Egyptian.

Caught off guard

Similar to the Israeli government, the Biden administration was caught off guard by the unexpected Hamas operation. According to two US officials, there was no intelligence whatsoever that hinted at the possibility of such an event.

In recent months, the White House had been focusing its attention on the West Bank rather than Gaza, and its efforts were primarily directed towards negotiations with the Palestinian Authority regarding their role in the Saudi mega-deal.

The main concern had been related to intelligence indicating the potential for a Hezbollah operation along the Israeli-Lebanese border, as mentioned by one US official. Another US official pointed out that discussions with Israeli officials in recent days had not raised the possibility of a Hamas operation.

In hindsight

The White House and State Department engaged in a series of calls with regional countries such as Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, seeking assistance in de-escalating the crisis.

The Biden administration's diplomatic efforts on Saturday were primarily aimed at preventing the spread of violence to other areas in the Middle East.

"Let me say this as clearly as I can: This is not a moment for any party hostile to "Israel" to exploit these attacks to seek advantage. The world is watching," Biden said.

On Saturday, a high-ranking US official, speaking to reporters, attempted to minimize the potential consequences of the ongoing crisis on the Biden administration's pursuit of a major deal involving Saudi Arabia and "Israel."

"Hamas and the other terrorist organizations will not derail the normalization process we are working on — and in any case, we said it still has a way to travel," the US official said.

The damage is already done

The crisis has already shown signs of disrupting the regional normalization process.

Secretary of State Blinken reached out to foreign ministers from Arab nations with peace agreements with "Israel," urging them to denounce the Hamas operation, but they did not respond as expected.

Additionally, when Blinken discussed the operation with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Saudi Arabia expressed rejection of civilian targeting but did not explicitly condemn the Hamas operation.

Prolonged delays

Secretary of State Blinken had plans to travel to the region in mid-October, including visits to "Israel," Saudi Arabia, and Morocco. However, it's uncertain whether this trip will proceed as scheduled.

His intended visit to Morocco was set to center around a ministerial summit involving "Israel" and four other Arab nations with whom it has established peace agreements.

Unfortunately, this summit, which has been postponed multiple times in the past nine months due to rising tensions in Al-Quds and the West Bank, is likely to face further delays.