US President Donald Trump’s first foreign tour since returning to the White House is driven by high-stakes economic ambitions, The Financial Times reported. Trump is expected to arrive in Saudi Arabia this week, seeking to secure multibillion-dollar investment commitments from Gulf monarchies, while attending an investment forum in Riyadh alongside CEOs such as Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Mark Zuckerberg.

According to the Financial Times, Trump’s visit will also include stops in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, where he will promote his “America First” investment agenda and attempt to fast-track deals across AI, energy, and defense. However, the centerpiece Trump appears to want the most, Saudi normalization with "Israel", remains elusive, according to the FT.

As the Financial Times reported, the Saudi royal court has made it clear that normalization is no longer under active discussion. Commentators close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman say Riyadh has shelved the idea unless there is a complete halt to the aggression on Gaza and progress toward establishing a Palestinian state, especially as Bin Salman has publicly described "Israel’s" actions in Gaza as “genocide".

Reuters reported a similar shift from the Biden-era normalization agenda earlier this month, stating that Washington is now pursuing a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia without linking it to recognition of "Israel."

According to the Financial Times, this shift marks a stark departure from 2020, when Trump brokered what he dubbed the "Abraham Accords", which led to normalization between the Israeli occupation and several Arab states. Saudi Arabia was always seen as the “grand prize", but the war on Gaza has dramatically altered regional priorities.

Gulf autocracies embrace Trump’s transactional diplomacy

Despite diplomatic setbacks, the Gulf states appear eager to engage with Trump’s second-term administration. The Financial Times noted that autocratic leaders in the region view Trump’s predictably transactional approach favorably. His dismissive stance on human rights, combined with his openness to large-scale weapons sales and deregulation, appeals to Gulf rulers focused on securing American technology and military support.

Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest $600 billion in the US over four years, while the UAE has promised $1.4 trillion over a decade. Qatar is expected to announce hundreds of billions in investment commitments during Trump’s stop in Doha, according to the Financial Times.

Gulf states shift from confrontation to pragmatism on Iran

The Financial Times also highlighted a key change in the region’s approach to Iran. During Trump’s first term, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi strongly supported his decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal. But after what they perceived as a weak US response to the 2019 drone and missile attack on Saudi oil infrastructure, Gulf states are now pursuing détente with Tehran, according to the report.

According to the Financial Times, Saudi Arabia and the UAE now support a renewed US-Iran agreement and are urging Trump to pursue diplomacy. Analysts quoted in the editorial say Gulf leaders fear becoming targets in any future regional conflict and are taking on a more mediating role between Washington and Tehran.

US CEOs, weapons deals, and AI investments dominate agenda

The Financial Times reported that Trump's delegation includes many of America’s most powerful tech and investment leaders, who will participate in a US-Saudi investment forum focused on AI, chips, and green energy. In response to Gulf lobbying, the US Treasury has announced a “fast-track” process to facilitate investment from allied states, a measure expected to favor the UAE and Saudi sovereign wealth funds.

Trump recently signed an executive order easing restrictions on arms exports and speeding up procurement, another Gulf demand. As the Financial Times observed, these moves reflect a second term focused more squarely on economic extraction than on reshaping regional geopolitics.

War on Gaza overshadows Trump’s Middle East diplomacy

Nevertheless, the war on Gaza will remain an unavoidable backdrop. The Financial Times noted that while Trump hopes to focus on deals and ceremonies, regional anger over "Israel’s" continued assault in Gaza threatens to derail diplomatic ambitions. Arab leaders are increasingly concerned that the war will radicalize a generation of youth across the region.

Qatar is also mediating between "Israel" and the Palestinian Resistance group, Hamas, alongside the US and Egypt. On Sunday, Hamas announced that it would release the last known US-Israeli captive, Edan Alexander, in what appeared to be a goodwill gesture timed to Trump’s visit.

According to the Financial Times, if no ceasefire deal is reached before Trump’s arrival, "Israel" has threatened to escalate its offensive and move toward full occupation of Gaza, an action that could further inflame tensions and complicate any public diplomacy during the trip.

As one diplomat told the Financial Times, “You can’t avoid talking about Gaza, but the focus will be on the economic deals.” The editorial makes it clear that while Trump will be welcomed with fanfare, the underlying political currents in the Middle East have shifted, and they may not align with his legacy-building goals.