US President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the United States, marking a dramatic escalation of his protectionist trade agenda into the cultural sector. The proposal, first floated in May, now appears to be moving forward despite widespread uncertainty about how such a policy could be enforced.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump claimed that the US film industry had been "stolen" by other countries through what he described as unfair competition. "Our movie making business has been stolen from the United States of America, by other Countries, just like stealing candy from a baby," he wrote.

Trump has argued that foreign governments lure productions with "all sorts of incentives," which he views as economic sabotage rather than legitimate competition. He has even framed foreign film production as a national security threat, accusing rival countries of using movies as tools of propaganda and influence.

The announcement has alarmed Hollywood studios, which increasingly depend on overseas partners and international box-office revenue. Major players, including Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount Skydance, Netflix, and Comcast, declined to comment to Reuters on the proposed tariffs, while analysts warned that higher costs would likely be passed on to consumers.

Paolo Pescatore, an industry analyst at PP Foresight, told Reuters that the move "raises more questions than answers," adding that for now, "costs are likely to increase, and this will inevitably be passed on to consumers."

A clash between global incentives and US protectionism

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Trump's threat comes at a time when film production has become highly globalized. Countries such as Canada, the UK, Australia, and Hungary have built thriving production hubs by offering lucrative tax rebates and credits. For example:

• The UK offers up to 40% in refundable tax credits.
• Canada provides federal and provincial incentives that can exceed 30%.
• Australia gives 30% rebates for post-production and visual effects work.
• Hungary offers rebates of up to 37.5%, attracting blockbusters like Dune.

These programs have drawn big-budget projects abroad, contributing to a nearly 40% decline in production activity in Los Angeles over the past decade.

Film industry trade surplus vs Trump’s rhetoric

Despite Trump's claims of a "dying" industry, the US film sector remains a dominant global player. According to the Motion Picture Association, US films generated $22.6 billion in exports in 2023, giving the industry a $15.3 billion trade surplus. Hollywood exports nearly three times as much as it imports, making it one of the most successful cultural exports in the US economy.

Analysts argue that what Trump calls "theft" is in fact standard economic development competition, similar to how US states like Georgia and New Mexico use incentives to draw production away from California.

Can a movie tariff work?

Experts also question whether Trump could legally or practically enforce such tariffs. Unlike physical goods, films are distributed digitally, which complicates traditional customs enforcement. A Hollywood production that is partially filmed overseas would likely be affected under such a policy, while streaming platforms hosting global content libraries could also fall within the scope of the tariff.

An industry lawyer cited by AP noted that there is "simply no precedent" for tariffing intellectual property like movies, making Trump’s plan highly uncertain.

Industry reactions, future outlook

The proposal has drawn skepticism from Hollywood executives and labor unions alike. After Trump’s initial tariff threat in May, US film guilds urged him to support domestic tax incentives instead, arguing that positive measures would be more effective in keeping jobs in the US.

For now, industry leaders remain cautious. As one studio executive told Reuters, "He's the president, so it should be taken seriously, but mostly people are just baffled by this."

While Trump frames his tariffs as a defense of US jobs and culture, critics warn the policy could backfire, damaging one of the nation's strongest export industries and undermining its global soft power.