US, French arms exports surge, Russian exports plummet: SIPRI

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: SIPRI
11 Mar 2024 18:19
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The US' arms exports surged by 17% between the periods of 2014–18 and 2019–23, with its share of total global arms exports rising from 34% to 42%.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits a production line at the future site of an arms factory where weapons maker Rheinmetall plans to produce artilleries from 2025, in Unterluess, Germany, Monday, Feb. 12, 2024 (AP)

The latest data released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) sheds light on significant shifts in the global arms trade landscape. While the US and France have witnessed remarkable growth in their arms exports, Russia has seen a sharp decline in its export volumes.

According to SIPRI, US arms exports surged by 17% between the periods of 2014-18 and 2019-23, with its share of total global arms exports rising from 34% to 42%.

Matthew George, Director of the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme, pointed out that this growth aligns with the US foreign policy objectives amidst increasing challenges to its economic and geopolitical dominance.

France has emerged as a notable player in the arms trade, with a remarkable 47% increase in its exports between 2014-18 and 2019-23. Surpassing Russia for the first time, France became the world's second-largest arms exporter. Katarina Djokic, a researcher at SIPRI, highlighted France's success in leveraging global demand, particularly in combat aircraft sales.

In stark contrast, Russian arms exports plummeted by 53% during the same period. This rapid decline is marked by a decrease in exports to only 12 states in 2023 compared to 31 in 2019.

Among other developments, SIPRI's data reveals a steep rise in arms imports by European states, which surged by 94% between 2014-18 and 2019-23. The US' share in supplying arms to Europe saw a substantial increase, reaching 55% in 2019-23 from 35% in the previous period. Pieter Wezeman, Senior Researcher at SIPRI, attributed this surge partly to increased demand for air defense systems driven by regional tensions.

SIPRI's report further highlights Asia as the largest recipient of arms transfers, with India ranking as the world's top arms importer. Notably, the US became the largest arms supplier to Asia and Oceania for the first time in 25 years. Siemon Wezeman, Senior Researcher at SIPRI, emphasized the role of perceived threats, particularly from the alleged China threat, in driving arms imports by US allies in the region.

In the Middle East, despite an overall drop in arms imports, several states continue to maintain high import volumes. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt feature prominently among the top importers, with the US being the primary supplier to the region.

How close are we to a nuclear war?

In light of recent geopolitical tensions, questions have arisen regarding the likelihood of a potential nuclear war. While it's important to acknowledge the possibility of such an eventuality, it's equally crucial to recognize that the likelihood of such a war remains low due to the catastrophic consequences it would entail.

Various factors may be contributing to the perceived risk of nuclear conflict, including the silent proliferation of nuclear weapons, geopolitical tensions, and the erosion of diplomatic norms. For instance, on January 27, a report by The Telegraph uncovered several documents indicating the US intent to transfer nukes to the UK. However, it is essential to remember that nations typically prioritize diplomatic resolutions and strategic deterrence to prevent such catastrophic scenarios.

Moreover, the notion of "mutually assured destruction" (MAD) acts as a significant deterrent, as nations understand the catastrophic consequences of initiating a nuclear conflict.

Al Mayadeen analysts suggest that the actor most likely to initiate a nuclear exchange is none other than the US, given its history of foreign policy, reliance on militarism to maintain dominance and strategic considerations in confronting geopolitical challenges.

Russia and China are less likely to do so because their policies are inherently focused on stability, deterrence, and avoiding escalations that could lead to catastrophic consequences for their respective nations and the world at large.

Read more: The Looming Threat of Nuclear War