US allies hesitant to join anti-Sanaa Red Sea coalition
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Major member countries have announced stepping back or scaling down on commitment to the alliance, including France.
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The French Aquitaine-class frigate FS Languedoc (D653), front, sails alongside the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) in the Mediterranean Sea, March 27, 2021 (US Navy)
By forming a new marine force, US President Joe Biden sought to offer a robust international reaction to Yemen's Armed Forces attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, but a week later, many allies are refusing to be affiliated with it, officially or otherwise.
Around a week has passed since the Pentagon announced the launching of Operation Prosperity Guardian, which will include contributions from 20 nations. However, it continues to be haunted by the reluctant participation of its members and uncertainty behind the operation's objectives.
Major member countries have announced stepping back or scaling down on commitment to the alliance, including France, which said it will not be operating under Washington's orders and will limit its operations to protect EU vessels, and Spain, which declared it will not participate entirely.
The Italian military ministry stated that it will deploy a ship to the Red Sea in response to requests from Italian ship owners, rather than as part of the US operation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have previously said that they had no interest in the operation.
After all, "Israel" has killed more than 21,000 Palestinians and some nations are not as adamant on supporting the Israeli occupation as the US may be.
David Hernandez, a professor of international relations at the Complutense University of Madrid told Reuters that European leaders are "very worried" their voters will turn against them since the European public is becoming highly critical of Israeli actions.
Shipping giants Hapag-Lloyd and Evergreen Line told CNN on Wednesday that their vessels will continue to avoid the Red Sea and sail around Africa, despite the US announcing its operation.
Many officials and maritime experts are doubting the group's effectiveness in facing Yemeni attacks, especially given the asymmetric warfare Sanaa is capable of engaging in, which mainly includes the extremely low financial costs of attacks - drones valued at a few thousand dollars - compared to high expenses of repelling them with multi-million dollars interceptor missiles.
The increased risk of participating countries being targeted by the YAF along with the increased support for Palestine particularly in Western Europe would explain the hesitation.
A senior military Indian official also told Reuters that the government is worried about becoming a target by aligning itself with the US.
US under pressure from multiple fronts
The US drive to garner international backing for its Red Sea security campaign comes as the US is under attack from resistance groups in the region on numerous fronts.
Resistance forces have attacked US bases in both Syria and Iraq.
According to Michael Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East during the Trump administration, the Pentagon's purpose with the new maritime coalition appears to be to make any future YAF attacks an international matter to separate them from the war on Gaza.
"Once the military vessels in Operation Prosperity Guardian start protecting commercial shipping and come under a direct attack, (the Houthis) will be attacking the coalition, not just the U.S.," Mulroy claimed.
Yemeni Armed Forces have 'upper hand' over US in Red Sea
According to an analysis by Michael Horton in Responsible Statecraft, the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) attacks in the Red Sea are not only "creating a global shipping crisis" but are also "paying hefty political and even strategic dividends" for the Yemenis.
Yemeni sources told Horton that not only are Yemeni citizens rushing to join Ansar Allah, but numerous Yemeni businesses and citizens are also contributing to the effort financially, which increases the regional power of the YAF.
Horton notes that despite the hefty price the Yemeni people will pay due to Yemeni import disruptions, they are still "hardwired for resilience and adaptability."
The author explains that while the US and its allies focus on costly "defensive measures", Ansar Allah has "factories, many of which are located in hard-to-target dense urban areas, which can manufacture — supplies permitting—dozens to hundreds of low-end drones per week."
Horton expresses that while the US and its friends have enough power to repel the YAF in the short term, he believes such a campaign will need to be sustained for months and be extremely costly to everyone involved. He notes that Ansar Allah are "masters of asymmetric warfare," emphasizing that the group will respond to attacks by possibly targeting Saudi and UAE energy infrastructure, which is one of the reasons why Saudi Arabia did not join the maritime coalition.
The author admits that the Yemeni Armed Forces "largely achieved their objectives" of harming "Israel" and its allies economically, as well as showing off their regional reach and increasing support within Yemen.
He believes that the US has "no good options" when it comes to their response apart from actively putting an end to "Israel's unrelenting offensive in Gaza."
