US objects Yemen war resolution, protects its KSA oil interests

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: The Intercept
1 Jan 19:43
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A new Intercept report explains why the US White House objected to Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders' War Powers Resolution in the context of US-Saudi relations.

US protesters calling on the US to end Saudi bombing of Yemen in 2019 (AFP)

The Intercept published a report on Sunday which argued that a US backing of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in its continued aggression against Yemen will result in a full-blown war, at a time when The Washington Post, in June 2022, exposed the continued US supply of weaponry, used in the war against Yemen, to KSA.

According to the Intercept, Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders had wanted to put forward, early in December 2022, a resolution to block the United States from supporting the Saudi-led coalition of aggression's war on Yemen. However, on December 14, Sanders and the White House clashed regarding the War Powers Resolution in a Senate vote run-up, and Sanders eventually agreed to withdraw his resolution, asserting that he would start negotiations with the White House on compromise language.

On January 1, 2023, The Intercept published a report where they highlighted that the White House warned that a vote on Sander's resolution would disrupt diplomatic efforts and bring about the conflict it was attempting to end.

“The Administration strongly opposes the Yemen War Powers Resolution on a number of grounds, but the bottom line is that this resolution is unnecessary and would greatly complicate the intense and ongoing diplomacy to truly bring an end to the conflict,” adding that “in 2019, diplomacy was absent and the war was raging. That is not the case now. Thanks to our diplomacy which remains ongoing and delicate, the violence over nearly nine months has effectively stopped," the White House statement said.

According to The Intercept report, the White House, despite its reports of advancement made on the diplomatic level regarding the Saudi war against Yemen, has continuously and consistently "sided with the Saudi coalition" against Yemen's Ansar Allah.

The report explained that Biden's administration maneuverings cannot be termed "good-faith efforts at diplomacy." The former UN Envoy to Yemen, Jamal Benomar, told The Intercept in that context that “there’s been no diplomatic progress whatsoever” and went even further and said that “there’s been no political process, no negotiations, or even a prospect of them. So an all-out war can resume at any time.”

As such, The Intercept report concluded that at the core of the White House's objection to Sander's resolution was the understanding that "without U.S. support for its warplanes, the Saudis would be effectively grounded, perhaps emboldening the Houthis [Ansar Allah], who are poised to relaunch strikes and send global oil markets spinning to win an end to the blockade."

What are common US-Saudi interests?

KSA, which is the second-largest oil producer in the world, has provided economic and regional stability to the US since FDR. Meanwhile, the Kingdom benefits from the backing of the world’s largest military.

The fundamental perception in the Biden administration that Saudi Arabia is a partner that can't be let go hasn't altered, even if MBS has led Saudi Arabia in areas that frequently strain that partnership, the most recent of which is the OPEC+ decision.

Despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties, "Israel's" interests and those of Saudi Arabia have gotten closer in recent years. Enmity and rivalry with Iran continue to bring "Israel" and Saudi Arabia together, respectively.

Due to how KSA influenced US domestic politics during the Trump administration and how it has since invested in the business ventures of former Trump officials Jared Kushner and Steven Mnuchin, many of the shared interests between the two nations are now obscured.

The Saudis miscalculated how polarized America has become under Trump. “They glommed on to Trump, and Trump glommed on to them,” F. Gregory Gause III, an international affairs professor at Texas A&M University, said.

What are the points of leverage?

US policymakers are undoubtedly contemplating how to make it clear that MBS' actions will have an impact on the US as well. The Biden administration was forced to think about how to change the relationship because of the oil production problem, not because of concerns about human rights, of course.

As Secretary of State Antony Blinken put it last month, “We will keep all of those interests in mind and consult closely with all of the relevant stakeholders as we decide on any steps going forward.”

For the past ten years, Saudi Arabia has been the US' top weapon customer. A $3.07 billion in weaponry sales to Saudi Arabia have been reported to Congress by the Pentagon, which may influence the President to take a different course of action. According to Saudi human rights campaigner Hala Aldosari, "The most crucial component of Saudi dependence on the US is security, of course, and technology that comes with it."

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) says that in response to the OPEC+ decision, the US should stop approving arms sales to the Kingdom and instead take its Patriot missiles, which are in high demand, and send them to Ukraine.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) contend that a similar pause would demonstrate US influence over Saudi Arabia without jeopardizing US security interests. “You may even decide on the back end of that and not resume them,” Rhodes said. It may lead to a more limited security relationship with conditions attached. “There needs to be a whole new kind of regime around whatever the security relationship is,” he added.

James Jones, a retired general, stated that Biden has occasionally criticized Saudi Arabia. Rhetoric, according to Jones, "inspires our friends and allies to seriously consider other options that we would not want them to consider."

Reducing the arms transfers could push Saudi Arabia to look elsewhere, defenses of the alliance fear. However, a number of Congressional staffers told Guyer that the claim that the US would force the kingdom toward China is no longer credible.

The Saudis are “welcome to, but they’re not going to do it,” a senior Democratic Congressional aide said. “China’s not going to come defend them, Russia is not going to come defend them. And they would never be able to switch weapons systems anyways.”

Until Congress takes action

Nevertheless, unless Congress takes action, halting arms sales appears to be a remote possibility at the moment. In Saudi Arabia, the US military is advancing a counter-drone program that Congress could delay to make a point.

Congress may also consider including language in the annual defense budget bill that ties US arms sales to Saudi Arabia to internal reforms like the release of political prisoners or other measures. There is also the NOPEC bill, which has been approved by the committee and would enable the US attorney general to pursue antitrust action against OPEC+.

The administration's options are limited if it is unwilling to reduce the military relationship. The US may also think about methods to make doing business with Saudi Arabia more challenging.

An even more extreme form of this would include the Biden administration imposing sanctions on MBS personally. The Crown Prince's potential immunity from a civil case involving the murder of Jamal Khashoggi as a head of state is another area of negotiation.