US recession 100% certain in 12 months, Bloomberg forecasts

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A new Bloomberg Economics model projected that in the next 12 months a recession in the United States is effectively certain.

Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecasted in their latest recession probability models that there is an increased probability of recession over all timeframes, during which it will hit a downturn reaching 100% in October 2023 compared to 65% within a comparable period during the 12-month estimate.

Read more: MBS head to head with Biden, US officials not invited to Davos

These projections come just before the midterms in November and shortly after US President Joe Biden announced, while in an ice cream shop, that the US "economy is strong as hell" which placed him in hot waters as his comment comes as the country faces one of the worst economic crises since 2008.

Biden's backlashes kept on coming, which also affected the position of the whole democratic party, as he also stated previously that the US "very slight" downturn but will be able to avoid recession, while stating after the growth data was released in late September that, "even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure. Our job market remains historically strong."

According to a separate survey conducted by Bloomberg, 42 economists predict that there is a 60% chance of a recession hitting the country within the next 12-month period, up from 50% in the previous month.

Read more: Almost $10 trillion in losses for US economy, GDP declining rapidly

The Wall Street Journal's latest survey of economists concluded that the US economy will tip into a recession next year, as the Federal Reserve struggles to bring down firmly high inflation. The probability of a recession in the next 12 months is now 63%, up from 49% in July's survey, according to the report. It is the first time the survey has put the probability above 50% since July 2020, following the previous short but sharp recession.

Projections for 2023 are becoming increasingly pessimistic. Economists now expect GDP to contract in the first two quarters of the year, a downgrade from the previous quarterly survey, which predicted mild growth. Economists now predict that GDP will contract at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2023 and shrink by 0.1% in the second quarter. According to the July survey, they expected 0.8% growth in the first quarter and 1% growth in the second.

Read more: Inflation could become rooted in US economy

A poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research revealed that only 33% percent of Americans would vote to reelect Biden if the presidential election were held immediately. On the other hand, 54% voted that they would choose another candidate. Following polls, Biden's popularity is the lowest among the past 3 presidents.

Last week, the chief executive of JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, predicted that the US economy will fall into recession within 6 to 9 months, citing a number of factors leading to this. In an interview with CNBC in London, Dimon posited that the Federal Reserve's strategy for dealing with inflation - which is running away from it - in addition to unknown effects of quantitative easing and consequences of the Ukraine war are all exacerbating the situation.

Infograph: Americans concerned about their everyday purchases

Some economists have said that the latest CPI data could see the Treasury pushing for an interest rate increase of 100 basis points instead of the 75 the Fed was aiming to add in November. The International Monetary Fund warned in late July that given the numerous risks the United States is facing, the country only has a meager chance of averting an economic slump, which apparently is not the case anymore.

According to the US Treasury, US national outstanding debt exceeded $31 trillion for the first time in its history, at a time when the US is faced with all-time high inflation coupled with high-interest rates, all of which deepen the economic uncertainty problem that the government, businesses, and people are all facing.

CRFB (Committee for a Responsible Fiscal Budget) stated that “Excessive borrowing will lead to continued inflationary pressures, drive the national debt to a new record as soon as 2030, and triple federal interest payments over the next decade – or even sooner if interest rates go up faster or by more than expected.”

Despite forecasts of recession hitting 100% within 12 months, it is estimated that recession might increase even sooner, as the Bloomberg model forecasts that recession will hit 73% within 11 months, up from previous estimations of 30%, while within a 10-month period the probability changed from 0% to 25%.

Read more: US industries losing battle against their own currency - WSJ

Forecasters have raised their expectations for a recession because they are increasingly skeptical that the Federal Reserve can continue to raise interest rates to cool inflation without causing higher unemployment and an economic downturn. 58.9% of economists believe the Fed will raise interest rates too quickly, causing unneeded economic weakness, up from 45.6% in July.

Most economists believe the Fed will have to reverse course and begin cutting rates late next year or early in 2024. 30% of economists expect the Fed to cut rates in the fourth quarter of 2023, and 28.3% expect the next cut in the first quarter of 2024.

It's noteworthy that US inflation surged to a new four-decade high in May, defying hopes that price pressures had peaked and deepening President Joe Biden's political troubles as Americans struggle to meet the cost of essentials like food and gas.