War between China, Taiwan unlikely, but US could change things: Expert

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
9 Sep 2022 21:24
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It is unlikely that war is to ever occur between Taiwan and mainland China, but how far is the US willing to go to instigate one?

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Guo Xinning, a senior researcher at Taihe Institute, told reporters on Friday that the likelihood that the People’s Liberation Army of China and Taiwanese separatists will be engaged in hostilities over the next few years is low, but the current administration of the island and the US have the potential to provoke unpredictable consequences.

"Over the next few years, the likelihood of a large-scale war in the Taiwan Strait is small, but if the separatists in Taipei, together with the United States, persist in taking steps in the wrong direction, it’s likely that the Chinese government will take decisive measures" Guo Xinning, who is also a professor at Tsinghua University, said in an interview.

The analyst said the PRC will adhere to a peaceful path to achieve Taiwan's reunification with the mainland.

"If the separatists in Taipei and external forces do not escalate the situation in the Taiwan Strait, everything will be stable," he said in the interview that followed a Taihe conference that took place in Beijing this week.

"With regard to [US House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi's recent provocative visit to Taiwan, China has shown a high degree of responsibility in terms of maintaining regional stability, demonstrating maximum restraint. That’s because we hope for peace and seek to resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully."

"However, if supporters of the so-called independence of Taiwan and external anti-Chinese forces continue to persistently implant separatist aspirations, the PRC government will take radical measures, including forceful methods with the use of weapons. Let me remind you that shortly before February 24, when the special military operation began in Ukraine, many people didn’t believe that hostilities would begin," he went on to say.

Most countries officially recognize only Beijing, but maintain informal relations with Taipei. Beijing opposes any official contact of foreign countries with Taiwan and considers Chinese sovereignty over the island indisputable.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had previously said the provocative activities taken by the US with respect to the Taiwan dispute are not an accident but rather a carefully thought-out farce.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said at a press conference that "Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has been driven by Washington’s aim to exhibit its immunity and lawlessness."

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The latest updates reveal that China is urging the US to annul its $1.1 billion arms deal with Taiwan and to cease all military contacts with the country.

On August 30, the Taiwanese military fired on a PLA drone for the first time after it had approached the Kinmen Islands, saying the defense forces would continue to stay on high alert and step up surveillance.

According to the South China Morning Post newspaper, no Chinese military aircraft, including drones, have flown over the islands since the 1950s.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen warned this week that the military might be forced to resort to live fire if the drones ignored warnings to leave.

On his part, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian considered Monday that drones were not "anything worth making a fuss about" as the drones were "flying around Chinese territory."