US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Wednesday on a high-stakes, last-minute mission to break the deadlock in the Ukraine war, just two days before a deadline set by President Donald Trump for Russia to agree to a peace deal or face increased sanctions.

Witkoff was greeted by Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund and a key investment envoy. State media broadcast images of the two walking together near the Kremlin, appearing deep in conversation.

A source familiar with Witkoff’s itinerary told Reuters that he would meet with the Russian leadership. While the Kremlin has not confirmed a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, it said such a discussion remains possible.

US President Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with the lack of progress toward a peace settlement and has threatened to impose heavy tariffs on countries that continue buying Russian exports. India and China, both major buyers of Russian oil, are among those under pressure.

The Kremlin has denounced Trump’s threats, calling such attempts to penalize trade partners illegal.

According to sources close to the Kremlin, Putin is unlikely to yield to Trump’s ultimatum. The Russian president reportedly believes he holds the upper hand militarily and is prioritizing his strategic goals in Ukraine over improving ties with Washington.

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"The visit of Witkoff is a last-ditch effort to find a face-saving solution for both sides. I don’t think, however, that there will be anything of a compromise," said Gerhard Mangott, an Austrian analyst who has participated in regular dialogues with Putin.

No breakthrough expected: Analysts 

"Russia will insist it is prepared to have a ceasefire, but under the conditions it has maintained for the last two or three years," Mangott added.

The Russian sources suggested that additional US sanctions would likely have a limited impact, given the broad scope of restrictions already imposed since the start of the conflict nearly four years ago. Putin, while not wanting to escalate tensions with Trump, appears unwilling to alter his military strategy to accommodate Western demands.

A real estate billionaire with no prior diplomatic experience, Steve Witkoff was appointed to Trump’s team in January. Since then, he has been tasked with handling ceasefire negotiations not only for Ukraine but also in Gaza, in addition to nuclear discussions with Iran.

In a March interview with journalist Tucker Carlson, Witkoff drew backlash after suggesting it was "preposterous" to claim that Russia intended to absorb Ukraine or threaten NATO territory. While Ukraine and many European governments argue the opposite, Moscow has consistently denied such ambitions, portraying the claims as rooted in Western hostility and "Russophobia".

Putin questions potency of Trump's ultimatum to end war

On Tuesday, sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters that Putin was unlikely to yield to a sanctions ultimatum set by Trump, which expires this Friday, and he continues to pursue the objective of fully seizing the Donbass regions.

Trump has warned that he will impose new sanctions on Russia and enforce 100% tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil, primarily China and India, the largest buyers, unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire in the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Putin's resolve to continue the war stems from his conviction that Russia is gaining the upper hand, as well as his doubt that additional US sanctions will significantly affect Russia, given the multiple rounds of economic penalties imposed over the past three and a half years of conflict, Reuters cited three sources familiar with discussions in the Kremlin as saying.