The current state of affairs inside the besieged Gaza Strip are unsustainable and a stain on humanity’s collective historical record. This being said, the only ways out of this current predicament will come in the form of a large regional war or a ceasefire. In order for a ceasefire to come about, however, there must be a major series of events that work to bring about a sustainable cessation of hostilities.

Unfortunately, we have reached a stage in the war between Gaza and the US-Israeli alliance where the invaders have clearly adopted a stance that will see them at war until total annihilation of the people of Gaza, unless there is a major shift. What the Palestinian resistance has managed to pull off against the Israeli military, during the initial offensive on October 7 and now the ground war inside Gaza, has inflicted such an embarrassment on the US-Israeli war machine that they are incapable of reconciling with. 

As the leader of Lebanese Hezbollah, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, has long said, “Israel” is a spider's web. Despite this clearly being the case, the Zionist Entity and its US allies are unwilling to accept their defeat and seek now to continue a genocidal campaign against the people from which the resistance comes, the people of Gaza. Israeli bloodlust, combined with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fear of his political undoing in a post-war setting and the US-Israeli refusal to allow the complete collapse of their superior image in West Asia, are all the driving factors of this war’s continuation. The military industrial complex and Western superiority are both on the line, for which Washington is clearly willing to see ethnic cleansing and genocide against the people of Gaza, in order to come off with a win.

With the Zionist regime, at the command of the US, failing to achieve any tangible results during their war on the besieged Palestinian territory they continue to attack, their only other means of securing any semblance of victory is believed to be in the form of a ceasefire victory. They hope to achieve this through putting such immense pressure on the civilian population of Gaza, that the resistance gives up its key ceasefire demands and releases the Israeli prisoners of war with little to show for it. However, the Palestinian resistance remains steadfast and refuses to bow to the dictates of the US and Israeli regimes.

Although Washington has changed its rhetoric recently, now using the word ceasefire to describe their long-held policy of seeking a temporary pause, this rhetorical shift only appears to be an attempt to pander to voter demands; in the context of the upcoming Presidential election. As for the Zionist Entity, as long as Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition remains in power and has the backing of the United States government, its position will not change and the extremist, often contradictory, statements issued by its elected representatives will only continue.

Despite it seeming as if the Israeli regime is in the driver's seat, the ones calling the shots are not operating in “Tel Aviv”, but rather in Washington. Therefore, during this month of Ramadan, the only way we are going to see a tangible change which could lead to a sustainable ceasefire agreement in Gaza, is through an escalation in a number of arenas.

The first place that could trigger a major shift in US strategic thinking is inside the remaining areas of occupied Palestine, namely occupied Eastern part of Al-Quds, the West Bank, and the 1948 territories. At this current moment, there are more Israeli occupation soldiers present inside the West Bank than there are inside Gaza. The rise in Israeli troop presence is significant because in the event that the territory erupts into an Intifada (uprising), the economic and security burdens that will be placed on the occupying regime will greatly impact the overall situation on the ground. If this is combined with large-scale and frequent clashes in and around the Old City of occupied al-Quds, it will represent a blow at the heart of the Zionist Entity, placing immense pressure on the US government to quickly end the hostilities by sealing a ceasefire agreement with the resistance in Gaza.

The added element of a revolt among Palestinian citizens of “Israel” could end up completely tearing the occupation regime apart and prevent it from functioning at all. A repeat of the Unity Uprising of May 2021 would be the ultimate nightmare scenario for the Zionist Entity and assuming such a comprehensive uprising could be sustained, could well spell the end of the regime as we know it. However, the likelihood of this scenario appears to be slim at this time.

Then we have the battle that has been going on between the resistance factions - mainly Hezbollah - and the Israeli military, which is beginning to head into dangerous territory. The Zionist regime appears hesitant to take major steps in all arenas but now feels as if it can get away with escalating its strikes inside Lebanese territory. Ultimately, if the Zionist regime is allowed to succeed in its mission to ethnically cleanse/commit genocide against the people of Gaza, it is evident that its next stop will be to launch an unprecedented attack on Lebanon. As of now, the Lebanese resistance has kept the battle along its southern border under control and dedicated its operations to assisting the Palestinian resistance. However, an escalation in the scale of the conflict there could end up forcing the US to take steps that would lead to a ceasefire. 

In the event of an escalation between Lebanon and the Zionist Regime, there is a thin line between a heightened level of battle and an all-out war, which is why taking major steps is difficult. Yet, a strategic escalation which threatens the possibility of all-out war, where both sides launch attacks which is understood will eventually lead to such an outcome, could result in Washington stepping in to end the fighting in Gaza and by extension close the Lebanese front. It appears that the US plan is to isolate Gaza and score some kind of victory by allowing the situation to continue going on for as long as it takes to weaken the resistance. Therefore, if it appears as if a Lebanon-“Israel” war is imminent, this could work to force the US into changing its strategy.

Another possibility is that the Zionist Entity will launch its threatened assault on Rafah, which will likely result in an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and the mass slaughter of civilians. Depending upon the blows that the Israeli military receives at the hands of the resistance and the level of the human catastrophe, this could also cause a shift in American strategic thinking. It is very likely that the US fears what could occur as a result of such a poorly planned and reckless assault on Rafah, that being the kind of ground incursion which we have seen throughout the Gaza Strip.

The Muslim Holy Month of Ramadan is clearly a time of heightened fears for the US Biden administration, as there are greater chances of unexpected actions being taken against the occupation. Specifically, when it comes to attacks on worshippers inside and surrounding al-Aqsa Mosque, this causes a special kind of rage, leading to frequent clashes throughout the occupied territories. For the coalition that Israeli PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, commands, the fate of the current government could be in the hands of extremists like Itamar Ben-Gvir, should they be willing to break the government over their desire to launch incursions and attacks on al-Aqsa.

Without a dramatic change to the status-quo, the situation inside the besieged Gaza Strip will only continue to get worse during Ramadan and after it, which is why there must be an escalation that comes in one way or another, in order to alter the current dynamics. In the absence of new developments on the ground, this will be a very tragic and painful Ramadan, topped off with an Eid that will be stripped of its usual happiness. This is a genocide and those who are committing the crime of all crimes aren’t going to stop on their own.