Even though India currently holds the presidency of the influential political, economic, and security coalition made up of China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, it unilaterally decided not to sign the SCO's Economic Development Strategy for 2030. Analysts claim that New Delhi fears that the adoption of SCO’s strategy for 2030 would be an endorsement of ‘China’s global economic rhetoric.’

Lack of enthusiasm

A media source claims that the SCO Summit, which India hosted on July 4th this year, has received much less recognition and attention in Indian media. The SCO did not garner as much attention in press headlines or on well-known TV discussion shows as the G20 did. The G20 summit is being held in India in September. Many commentators claim in the current debate that the SCO is losing pace and that the appointment of the Indian chairmanship is seen as regressive rather than progressive in terms of the development of the organization's institutional framework.

In a first blow to the SCO, India has decided to host a virtual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) rather than an actual one without giving any justification whatsoever. The move signals a change in how New Delhi views the eight-nation regional organization in the wake of Prime Minister Modi's recent four-day state visit to the US.

Observers have expressed surprise at the Indians' decision to deviate from customs and hold a virtual summit. This move is particularly surprising considering that many countries have already relaxed stringent measures in response to the declining impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, New Delhi has not provided any compelling security rationale to justify its departure from the customary practice of holding an in-person summit according to the traditions of the SCO.

An official source told Al-Mayadeen English that the decision to hold the SCO Summit in an online format was made in early June as a result of various challenges encountered in coordinating the schedules of the high-ranking participants.

“There was speculation regarding the potential absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin from the summit in New Delhi, as their attendance had not been officially confirmed,” he disclosed. India, he maintained, strategically chose to engage in a virtual summit as a means to circumvent potential diplomatic discomfort.

Nevertheless, one prominent rationale for India's decision to shift its position is the perception that its strategy of maintaining equilibrium in diplomatic relations with both the US and Russia is no longer viable. Even within the framework of the SCO, the bilateral relations between India, China, and Pakistan are characterized by certain challenges and complexities.

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Why did India skip the in-person summit?

According to Pakistani officials, it was initially perceived that India opted against hosting an in-person summit, potentially due to the absence of confirmation from Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding their attendance at the summit in New Delhi.

The officials explains that the non-participation of the Chinese and Russian Presidents in the summit would have potentially posed a diplomatic embarrassment for India. The virtual format of the summit was chosen by New Delhi likely due to this particular reason.

Another circle posited the potential influence of Pakistan in the matter, considering the events that transpired in Goa during the convening of the Council of Foreign Ministers. It is from this perspective that India harbored concerns that the presence of the Pakistani Prime Minister at the summit in New Delhi could potentially overshadow the deliberations of the SCO. The occurrence of numerous international headlines and the anticipation surrounding a potential meeting between Pakistani and Indian leaders during the summit would have been noteworthy. According to the source, this was precisely the outcome that India sought to prevent.

Some analysts, however, have suggested that the conflict between India and China's borders as well as Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have had an impact on the situation. India appeared to display a lack of interest in hosting leaders from Russia and China, who are considered adversaries of the Western nations and the US, at a time when New Delhi is improving relations with them.

Based on reports from Indian media, the presence of adversaries in the Indian capital would have posed a complication for New Delhi, as it actively seeks advanced technology through intensified engagement with Western nations. Contrary accounts have suggested that the hosting of these leaders by India in September for the G20 summit renders the potential video conference meeting of SCO leaders inconsequential.

Modi’s state visit to Washington

President Joe Biden offered Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi the full pomp and circumstance of a state visit last month to send a clear message to Beijing that India was on Washington's side by signing several strategic defense agreements and billions of dollars in new investments by US e-commerce and technology titans.

The US and India have been busy making nice after a $4.8 billion nuclear deal between China and Pakistan in June, which will allow Pakistan to receive a new nuclear reactor to run a 1,200-megawatt nuclear power plant at the Chashma complex in central Pakistan. Previously, China offered $5 billion in loan rollovers to the dollar-strapped nation and promised to construct a new airport in southern Pakistan.

The competition between Washington and Beijing to expand their foothold in the region has reached such a high level that Washington has offered India exclusive defense cooperation reserved only for NATO allies.

The bilateral technological cooperation between India and the United States has been significantly enhanced as a result of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to the U.S. The main focus of the visit centered on two significant defense agreements, specifically the establishment of a co-production facility for the GE F414 engine used in the F/A-18 Super Hornet twinjet fighter and the procurement of MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones from General Atomics.

India and the United States have mutually agreed to strengthen their cooperation in diverse emerging and strategic technologies. These factors hold significant importance, not only in terms of the economic progress of both nations but also in their capacity to effectively address the dynamic global security challenges. By signing agreements that prioritize these technologies, the governments of New Delhi and Washington are effectively establishing the foundation for the advancement of their "global strategic partnership." India and the US are capitalizing on the advantageous conditions resulting from substantial geopolitical shifts in global politics, alongside India's continuous technological progress.

Analysts are pondering whether the US is luring India to sow discord within the SCO ranks.