It is public knowledge that the Israeli occupation forces (IOF) have taken a firm beating during their war on Gaza, and the extent of humiliation merits renewed consideration. The view from the ground is that strategic weaknesses have dominated IOF ranks, letting off a wave of dwindling morale and widespread trauma across occupation fighters. "Israel's" rising death and injury tolls have contributed to intense critical scrutiny at home, pushing warmongering Benjamin Netanyahu and his security cabinet on even thinner ice. Nearly 500 occupation army soldiers have been killed and thousands other injured since the onset of "Israel’s" ethnic cleansing scheme against Gaza. These figures bury the myth of Israeli tactical competence, and its so-called gains across occupied territories.

First, the numbers make a mockery of "Israel’s" combat preparedness and serve as an extension of mass policy and military failures that have accompanied the occupation since day one. Fierce encounters with Resistance fighters have ensured that the occupation army partially retreats from cities in northern Gaza. The Resistance has succeeded in obstructing Israeli invasions into the center, and delivered a level of tactical might that has pushed the IOF casualty toll upwards. 

As recently as November, fierce resistance across Gaza’s southern and northern axes have sent invading forces scrambling. The resulting chaos should’ve been a wake-up call for the IOF that there is no symmetry between an embattled occupation army and a formidable resistance on the battlefield. Meanwhile, "Israel" has moved the goalposts on its genocide and sold fictitious victory narratives. On the one hand, occupation sources claim that true triumph would emerge after months of more humiliation. While some contended that the genocide needs to stick for a year. Whichever way one cuts it, "Israel’s" pattern of denial is unmistakable: it keeps stretching timelines to cover up massive defeats on-ground. This is a classic exercise in futility.

Interestingly, "Israel’s" propaganda machinery can’t do much to spin documented failures and tactical weaknesses into a success story favoring the occupation. The damning figures on death and injury tolls were published by none other than the occupation’s own military command. It is an entity known to omit losses from the final toll and manipulate the aggregate count in the process. Look no further than the investigative stories published by several Israeli media outlets. A series of them have indicated a much higher injury toll than what the figures establish. 

As a result, the contradictory accounts reveal a sense of growing panic, frustration and divergence on the extent of damage actually incurred on the ground since October 7. Not long ago, "Israel" touted its reservists as leverage to further entrench the illegal occupation and see the genocide through. However, the same occupation army feels increasingly overwhelmed by the power, discipline, and sophistication of Palestine’s organized Resistance.

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From a political viewpoint, "Israel’s" humiliating military losses are turning up the heat within occupation ranks, reflected in Israeli Comptroller Matanyahu Englman’s recent admission that the Zionist state gave way to “multi-system failures” from day one. Englman also exposed the sheer extent of these failures across “policy, military, and civilian” domains. All this prepares the ground for tighter scrutiny over Netanyahu, who has been losing popular support and incurred the wrath of occupation soldiers and hostages in recent times.

The specter of a “mass probe” into the occupation’s strategic and tactical incompetence is likely to take that pressure up a notch. Pressure from the comptroller’s office is reportedly set to span occupation policymakers, military officials, and above all, Netanyahu’s own security cabinet.

Any attempts to expand "Israel’s" ongoing genocide will also prove self-destructive. Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz recently spoke about the prospect, while threatening the Lebanese Resistance with destructive consequences at the border. But massive insecurities and strategic limitations are at the center of this hollow rhetoric and bluster. Consider key factors.

First, any expansion would mean that the Israeli occupation army is determined to ignore its humiliating death and injury toll beyond a breaking point. This assumes that the occupation machinery can welcome more losses from an empowered resistance, setting the stage for a firm reckoning. Second, so-called expansion will further expose the occupation army’s deep-seated operational issues and tactical deficiencies on the battlefield. These include the IOF’s glaring failures to tell combatants and non-combatants apart. 

Thirdly, any expansion comes with the presumption that "Israel" can afford casualties and injuries in a fast-changing, multifront war. This is a tough sell, considering that occupation belligerence only ends one way: heightened resistance to the Zionist regime’s illegal occupation and its attempted colonial reach outwards. 

Present reality paints a totally different picture: groups across Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon have sensed the temperature of a regional war, warned "Israel" against further escalation, and maintained a zero-tolerance attitude towards breach of sovereignty. "This brutal Israeli aggression against the sovereignty of the Syrian territories is part of the occupation authorities’ attempt to expand and escalate their aggression in the region and to cover up war crimes, genocide, crimes against humanity and brutal massacres committed daily against the defenseless Palestinian people," warned the Syrian Foreign Ministry in a letter to the Secretary General of the United Nations on "Israel’s" illegal airstrike on December 25.

The message couldn’t be clearer – either IOF bites the bullet on its occupation, or braces the consequences of unmitigated bloodshed.