Since the beginning of the genocide, questions have been raised about the motives of the actors involved. On the Resistance side, Hamas claims it is motivated by the desire to release Palestinian prisoners, demand the full lifting of the siege imposed on Gaza, and secure concessions from the Israeli occupation regarding access to Al-Aqsa Mosque. "Israel" states it aims to destroy Hamas and eliminate any potential for its re-emergence. However, these local demands are subdued by broader strategic regional and international agendas.

The clash of corridors

Internationally, in September 2023, Biden announced the United States' new vision for the region, dubbed the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This initiative builds on the normalization accords, signed in 2020, which aimed to normalise "Israel's" relations with several Arab countries.

The corridor aims to enhance connectivity and economic integration between Asia, the Gulf, and Europe. Specifically, the IMEC comprises two corridors: one connecting India with the Gulf and the other linking the Gulf with Europe. These corridors will include a maritime shipping route, a railway land route, connectivity pipelines, and data cables. The corridors are expected to secure regional supply chains and increase trade accessibility. The key partners in this deal are the US, the EU, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, India, "Israel", and Jordan. Beneath the IMEC façade lies a US attempt to redesign the region's security and trade architecture, ensuring its continued control over trade routes and the stability of its military supply lines in the region.

Just a few weeks after this announcement, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in China and declared a strategic partnership between the two countries. This came just a year after Syria joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As part of this partnership, China will support Syria in reconstruction, counter-terrorism capacity building, and promoting a political settlement of the Syrian issue, following the "Syrian-led, Syrian-owned" principle. The partnership is seen as China’s response to the IMEC, aimed at securing its access to the Mediterranean Sea and connecting Syria to the BRI trade routes, thereby preventing the US from choking China’s maritime access to Europe.

Syria supports the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative, and will actively participate in them. The Syrian war was intended to block the supply lines of Syria and the Axis of Resistance by ensuring the route was obstructed by terrorists in Iraq and Syria. Hezbollah’s involvement in the war stemmed partly from its desire to secure its supply lines, which it has succeeded in doing in cooperation with the Syrian state, despite relentless Israeli attempts to sabotage these efforts through airstrikes on the supply line route in Syria and Iraq. The partnership with China provides Syria with an additional lever to secure its supply lines and maintain connectivity with the rest of the world, in light of continuous Western sanctions that have accompanied over 10 years of destructive war.

A few months before the announcement of the IMEC, an earlier competing regional trade arrangement called the Iraq Development Road (IDR) was announced in May. The IDR is an ongoing project aimed at connecting Asia with Europe by establishing a network of railways, roads, ports, and cities. The project will link the Grand Faw Port in southern Iraq to Turkiye's border, with further extension into Europe. This initiative will position Iran and Turkey as alternative hubs to Israel.

In May 2023, Iran and Russia signed an agreement to construct the final section of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects Russia to the Gulf and India to boost regional trade. This route is expected to transform Iran into a regional trade hub. In August of the same year, BRICS invited Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to join the group. This move was also seen as part of Russia and China’s attempt to redefine global trade routes and counter US efforts to isolate them from the global economy. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt viewed BRICS membership as a way to balance their relations between the East and the West, and to counterbalance Iran’s membership. Domestically, Iran saw its membership as a means to break Western sanctions and further internationalise its economy.

Effectively, before the onset of Al-Aqsa Flood in October, numerous significant global trade projects were announced, all competing for access and aiming to leverage their respective countries' geopolitical advantages to become key hubs in the global supply chain. "Israel", with the support of the US and its Gulf allies, aspires to become the primary transportation hub. Turkiye and Iraq seek to establish themselves as neutral trading hubs. Iran, China, and Russia are backing Syria, although they are open to joining other arrangements if possible. Amid this fierce competition, the Flood occurred, altering the regional dynamics surrounding trade routes.

Global supply lines post 7 October/Gaza genocide and Israel’s IMEC survival plan   

Hamas's October 7 operation, the ensuing fighting, and its continued ability to target Israeli ports and cities with drones and missiles, have signalled to regional actors that "Israel" may be unable to play an active role in the IMEC in the near to medium term due to its involvement in the Gaza conflict and its focus on domestic issues. The US has attempted to use the war in Gaza as a means to solidify the IMEC by brokering a deal to normalise relations between Saudi Arabia and "Israel" - a key requirement for the success of the IMEC - in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza. "Israel" also attempted to activate an alternative land bridge with the Gulf and India, but while this route has operated, it has seen limited success and volume, casting doubt on its prospects.

Meanwhile, Iraq has successfully courted Turkiye and Gulf countries, leading to Qatar and UAE signing up to the IDR, which can be seen as a hedging strategy against the IMEC in case the war drags on for many years, as expected. Although the US, Russia, and China are not officially part of the IDR, they are content to be associated with it. Turkiye aims to be a hub for Russian gas to Europe and the world, while China seeks to use this connectivity to link the BRI to the broader global supply chain.

The Gaza war has significantly redefined global supply lines, particularly after Yemen decided to impose a maritime blockade initially targeting "Israel", and later the US and the UK. The maritime blockade was announced by the Ansar Allah government as a means of pressuring for an end to the genocide in Gaza. The blockade has led to ships linked to "Israel", as well as US and UK military vessels, being targeted in the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, and the Arabian Sea. In the wake of the blockade, Ansar Allah has stated that it is working with BRICS countries and has reached an understanding regarding its efforts, indicating that Russia and China are assisting Yemen in becoming a regional maritime power, aimed at undermining the supply lines of the US and its regional military and trade allies.

Advanced capabilities, such as hypersonic missiles and air and undersea drones, have been used in these attacks, resulting in a significant reduction in ship traffic through the Suez Canal, which may suggest the involvement of great powers in arming Yemen. The Israeli port of Eilat has gone out of service and declared bankruptcy. Many ships have been attacked in Haifa port and the Indian Ocean. The maritime siege on "Israel" has led to increased shipping costs and longer delivery times. In response, the US launched Operation Prosperity Guardian in December 2023 to police the Red Sea, but it has so far failed to deter the blockade.

"Israel" announced its plan to integrate Gaza within the IMEC and transform it into a hub for producing Saudi electric vehicles (EVs) and exporting minerals to the world, according to a document released by the Israeli Prime Minister's office. As part of pursuing this new plan, "Israel" took control of Gaza’s only crossing with Egypt in Rafah to make it completely dependent on "Israel" for imports, exports, and travelling. In August, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a speech to the US Congress in Washington, DC, where he outlined his vision for the region post-Gaza war. In his address, he announced that "Israel" is working to establish the Abraham Alliance, an anti-Iran regional coalition. The Alliance focuses on countering Iran and centres the resolution of the Gaza conflict on forming an alliance of Arab countries to administer the Strip after "Israel" the elimination of Hamas, widely known as the “day after” plan.

"Israel" is attempting to reorient the region and link its future to annexing Gaza into the IMEC, ending the possibility of Palestinian statehood, and replacing it with local proxies administering Gaza on behalf of the Israeli occupation and Gulf states such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. "Israel" wants regional actors to bear the economic cost of ending the war in Gaza in exchange for giving the IMEC a higher chance of success and ensuring its future security. It also remains hopeful that it can win the war and use this victory as a gateway to re-legitimise the IMEC and its potential to become a regional trade hub.

Days after the speech, "Israel" assassinated the head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, and Hezbollah's second-in-command in its military branch, Fouad Shokor. The severity of these targets and the manner in which the assassinations were carried out signalled that "Israel" and the US no longer view the conflict through the narrow lens of Gaza, but rather through the broader context of the future regional order, signalling their intent to challenge the emerging Axis of Resistance both individually and collectively. Recognising the seriousness of the diminishing deterrence, the Axis has vowed to retaliate, with retaliation expected to draw the region into intensive conflict, as the head of Hezbollah announced a new stage of the war, which includes the potential for an open regional conflict in the aftermath of these assassinations.

The future of the Gaza war and global trade

While the war in Gaza began partly due to domestic reasons, it has since evolved beyond them. Today, the future of the war is intertwined with the future of the region and the world. The genocide is now about redefining global supply lines, not just the domestic issues in Gaza and "Israel". "Israel" has legitimised its actions in Gaza as part of a long-term effort to eliminate Hamas and secure the future of the IMEC, indicating that "Israel" is not interested in ending the genocide anytime soon.

For Hamas and the Palestinians, ending the war is no longer possible without coordinating with global actors such as Russia, China, and the Axis of Resistance, who are seeking to redefine their involvement in the conflict with the aim of preventing the success of the IMEC. The IMEC’s success would enable the US to continue using the region to supply military efforts against China and Russia. China’s interest lies in ensuring that Gaza does not lose the war and in maintaining the blockade against US and UK ships, which would undermine their ability to intervene in a potential conflict in Taiwan, potentially provoked by the US. For Russia, access to Syrian ports and the security of neighbouring Lebanese ports are crucial. Thus, Hamas and the Palestinians need to strengthen ties with Russia and emphasise the regional and global nature of the war. Russia is already playing a more significant role in the Palestinian national reconciliation and exerting efforts to end the conflict.

Moreover, Russia has made a greater military commitment to the Axis, with media reports suggesting that it is currently supplying Hamas and Hezbollah with weapons. Ansar Allah has stated that even if the genocide in Gaza ends, their actions against the US and the UK will continue. This aligns with media reports from July that discuss Russia’s provision of advanced weapons to Yemen to support their regional maritime blockade against the US, the UK, and Israel.

China has also launched diplomatic and political initiatives aimed at achieving Palestinian reconciliation and a two-state solution after signing a strategic partnership with Palestine in June 2023. As a result of Chinese efforts, representatives from Fatah and Hamas, along with 12 other Palestinian factions, signed a declaration agreeing to form an interim "national reconciliation government" for the occupied West Bank and Gaza after the war with "Israel", in a meeting brokered by China last month. The Chinese initiative challenges the US and "Israel's" plans for Gaza and the IMEC, offering an alternative where Palestinians maintain statehood and independence, potentially involving a greater role for China in the reconstruction of Gaza and the possible establishment of a Chinese-run port there.

Ultimately, the aftermath of the conflict in Gaza will be directly linked to the future of the region and global trade, thus, regional military escalation is expected, with the war likely to continue for many years.