The "Ocean-2024" maneuvers, conducted by Russia in collaboration with China in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, represent a significant strategic event in international relations, particularly concerning strategic deterrence against the United States. These maneuvers occur during a sensitive period marked by increasing geopolitical tensions, highlighting the military capabilities of both countries and their desire to reshape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.

1. Military and Geostrategic Implications

The "Ocean-2024" maneuvers are the largest since the collapse of the Soviet Union, involving over 400 warships, 120 aircraft, and 90,000 personnel. This scale reflects Moscow's ability to showcase its military power and send a strong message to Washington and its allies that Russia remains a significant and effective maritime power. The maneuvers included complex operations such as joint assaults, advanced tactical maneuvers, and cyber warfare exercises, demonstrating a high level of coordination between the naval and aerial forces of both nations. Importantly, the coordination between the Russian and Chinese militaries transcends mere bilateral cooperation, encompassing the exchange of military tactics and experiences, and reflecting both countries' commitment to confronting shared threats. Furthermore, these exercises enhance their capability to operate jointly in times of crisis, marking a strategic step in bolstering military partnership.

Symbolic Naming

a. Soviet Nostalgia

Russia's use of the term "Ocean" symbolizes its Soviet era and the naval maneuvers of the 1970s and 1980s, indicating its desire to revive its maritime military influence. The maneuvers also carry implications regarding Russia's nuclear capabilities, with Moscow emphasizing its intention to bolster its naval nuclear strength as part of this showcase. President Vladimir Putin, in his opening speech, described these maneuvers as a manifestation of Russia's aspiration to reclaim its status as a great power, warning that any threat to Russia would be met with a robust response.

Related News

BRICS+ remains credible counterweight to Western hegemony

Real American patriots condemn the war on Iran

b. Chinese centrality

China has named its joint maneuvers with Russia "North United 2024," underscoring its vision to establish Beijing as a global center. This title expresses the unity of objectives between Moscow and Beijing in countering Western, particularly American, dominance. Through these maneuvers, China seeks to assert its control over the region and propose a new model for great power relations, moving away from traditional US hegemony. This step clearly articulates China's foreign policy aimed at reshaping the international system into a multipolar one, with China and Russia playing pivotal roles.

3. Strategic Deterrence Models

a. Offensive Russian Deterrence

The maneuvers signal a shift in Russia's deterrence strategy toward an offensive dimension. Russia has outlined its new military policy since 2015, focusing on a blend of threat and coercion to enhance its deterrent capabilities. It became evident from these exercises that Russia is prepared not only for defense but may also consider offensive actions if it perceives its interests to be threatened. This development is part of a broader transformation in Russian military doctrine, emphasizing "active deterrence" that enables Russia to preempt potential threats.

b. Defensive Chinese Deterrence

While China's deterrence model traditionally relies on a strategy of retaliatory strikes, its participation in the "Ocean-2024" maneuvers demonstrates its readiness to take the initiative offensively if faced with existential threats. This preparation arises amid ongoing threats from the United States, underscoring the significance of military collaboration. China's involvement in the exercises reflects its ambition to enhance its military capabilities in response to increasing US pressures in the region and to weaken encirclement attempts.

4. Strengthening Alliances

The "Ocean-2024" maneuvers illustrate the evolution of the Russia-China alliance from a "necessity" alliance to a "strategic partnership," aiming to transcend historical disagreements and build a joint deterrent against US policies. This cooperation serves as a model for strategic balance in the face of Western challenges, as both countries work toward enhancing their partnership across various domains, including economics and technology, in addition to military cooperation. It is increasingly likely that this alliance will not be limited to military aspects but will also encompass cooperation in space and energy, reflecting both nations' desire to construct a comprehensive strategic partnership.

5. Implications for the Ukrainian Front

These maneuvers serve as a means to exert pressure on the United States and its European allies regarding the Ukrainian crisis. They carry the message that any increase in Western support for Ukraine will be met with greater Russian intervention in the Indo-Pacific, thereby enhancing Chinese influence. These dynamics indicate a shift in the strategies of the new Cold War, with major powers forming new alliances to address potential threats. The interaction between the Ukrainian and Indo-Pacific crises strengthens ties between Moscow and Beijing, complicating the global geopolitical landscape.

6. Balancing U.S. Alliances

China faces increasing challenges from US alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS. Consequently, these maneuvers bolster ties with Russia, representing a strategic step for Beijing to construct a reinforced network of alliances that balances power in the Indo-Pacific region. China is actively enhancing its defense capabilities and collaborating with Moscow, presenting a significant challenge to US policies in the area. Given the current transformations, it is expected that Washington will bolster its military presence in the Indo-Pacific, which may escalate tensions among various parties.

7. Regional Security Implications

The "Ocean-2024" maneuvers represent a launching point for the reconfiguration of regional security. They are likely to escalate tensions with neighboring countries such as Japan and South Korea, which are concerned about Russian and Chinese military expansion. This context suggests that old alliances may be tested as regional nations strive to bolster their military capabilities and collaborate with traditional allies to address new challenges. Such developments could lead these nations to enhance their military presence, increasing the likelihood of new conflicts in the region.

8. Economic and Trade Transformations

The ramifications of the "Ocean-2024" maneuvers extend beyond military realms to encompass economic and trade aspects. These maneuvers will likely enhance economic cooperation between Russia and China, as both countries aim to expand their trade and investment relations in response to Western sanctions. The exercises also provide an opportunity to broaden cooperation in energy and technology, allowing both nations to leverage their experiences in developing joint projects such as pipelines and renewable energy initiatives. This economic collaboration is part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on the West and enhance economic resilience.

9. Cyber Dimensions of Warfare

In the modern era, cyber capabilities play an increasingly vital role in international conflicts. Notably, the inclusion of cyber warfare elements in the "Ocean-2024" maneuvers underscores Russia and China's ability to conduct complex cyber operations alongside conventional military movements. This integration of military and technological systems indicates that future conflicts will be more complex, with traditional and non-traditional methods intermingling. Consequently, cyber preparedness is an integral component of the deterrence strategy for both countries.

In light of recent developments, the "Ocean-2024" maneuvers signify a strategic shift in the deterrence models of both Russia and China. Military cooperation embodies the strength of their alliance and represents their shared strategies to confront American hegemony. These dynamics are expected to influence the geopolitical balance in the region, prompting a reassessment by the United States and its allies. The new dimensions of these maneuvers indicate that the world is witnessing a new era of geopolitical competition, coinciding with ongoing efforts to reshape the "rules-based" international order that the United States and its allies advocate, as challenged by Russia, China, and other global powers.