The British general election held on Tuesday, July 4, 2024, resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party after a 14-year absence from power, ending the Conservative Party’s control of the House of Commons, the Prime Minister’s Office, and the government. These elections revealed the growing resentment toward the policies of the Conservative Party, as was shown early by the results of the recent local elections. These elections reflected the nature of the transformations in the British political scene at the domestic level, while it seems that the external political scene of Britain will not be affected by much change.

Electoral transformations

First of all, we note that the British general elections were held with the participation of fifteen political parties, the most important of which are: the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Reform Party of Britain, the Scottish National Party, the Green Party, the Democratic Unionist Party, Plaid Cymru, and Sinn Féin, whose candidates competed in 650 counties distributed over four main regions: England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. According to the electoral system, the winning party is the one that obtains the majority of seats, amounting to 326 seats, so that the party leader becomes the prime minister who must initiate the formation of the government that is responsible for managing the affairs of the state.

Returning to the results of the British general elections, the historic and significant decline of the Conservative Party was clear and striking, as it won 121 seats, a decline of 251 seats out of a total of 362 seats it had won in the elections held in 2019, equivalent to two-thirds of the seats. This number is the lowest since the Conservative Party was founded in 1834, and this result is the worst since the party won 156 seats in 1906. Not only that, but the horrific loss of the Conservative Party overthrew a number of its prominent politicians, such as former Prime Minister Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Speaker of the House of Commons, Defense Minister Rand Shapps, Justice Minister Alex Chalke, Transport Minister Mark Harper, Education Minister Gillian Keegan, and Culture Minister Lucy Fraser, in addition to the Conservative Party losing a large number of electoral districts that are traditionally considered to be its own, such as Wales, most of whose seats went to the Labour Party. It seemed as if British voters had punished the Conservatives harshly for their disastrous domestic policies on them.

In contrast, the Labour Party won 412 seats, which enabled it to form a government headed by Sir Keir Starmer. He pledged to unite and rebuild Britain and make the changes the Labour Party promised during its election campaign. These focused mostly on internal economic, social and health issues due to the crises that have swept Britain in recent years, specifically since its exit from the European Union, as well as the challenges imposed by the directions of British foreign policy, which seem to be characterized by continuity. So, what will the British political scene look like on the internal and external levels?

On the domestic front:

1.   Reviving the British economy: The state occupies a large and advanced position in the economic plan of the Labour Party and its government headed by Keir Starmer, which is based on establishing a state-owned clean energy company, renationalizing the railways when contracts expire, implementing a new industrial strategy, eliminating inflation that would make living standards difficult and tiring, establishing a national wealth fund so that private sector investments contribute three pounds for every pound spent by the government, (saving about seven billion pounds of the planned spending), strengthening the policy of rapprochement with business owners and large companies that the party adopted before the elections to dispel their concerns and fears of the "leftist" orientations of the Labour Party, maintaining a strategic reserve of gas, and preventing the issuance of new extraction licenses for gas and oil fields in the North Sea. The Labour Party also intends to increase taxes on gas and oil companies, maintain nuclear capabilities, shift toward clean energy, and follow strict financial rules regarding borrowing meant only for promoting investment, rather than used for daily spending. The Labour government is also expected to crack down on tax evasion, end tax exemption, and impose VAT on private school fees.

2.   Combating crime and reducing violence: The Starmer government has pledged to work on combating crime and reducing violence. During 2023, crime survey reports in England and Wales recorded an estimated 8.4 million crimes, ranging from criminal offenses to fraud and sexual harassment. This is due to the decline in police funding and the decrease in the number of officers since 2010. To address this significant increase in crime and violence, the Starmer government has promised to recruit 13,000 officers to reduce lawlessness and enforce the law against violators, imposing strict new penalties on them.

3.   Strengthening the health sector: The Labour government is looking to improve the health sector, which suffers from severe problems and pressures, as the deficit in this sector has reached thirteen billion pounds, and there is little in the public finances to fix these problems. This has led to high treatment costs and increased waiting times. According to opinion polls, health issues have topped the list of concerns for the British populace. Despite the Starmer government’s promises to improve and strengthen health services, by spending an estimated 1.8 billion pounds to support this vital sector, this will not make a big difference, as the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated that the allocated amount is much less than the amount required to address the problems of this sector, which will always remain a top priority.

4.   Lowering the voting age and ending the hereditary “nobility”: Reducing the voting age from 18 to 16 is a priority for Starmer’s government, as the latter announced his intention to introduce amendments to the House of Lords and end the appointment of hereditary peers for life and to set a legal retirement age for them while adopting proportional representation for the lords in proportion to the size of the counties and their population.

5.   Reducing illegal immigration: Starmer acknowledged that combating illegal immigration will be a priority for his government, so the government will cancel the law to deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda. This has been passed by the previous Conservative government led by Sunak. Starmer expressed this by saying that the "Rwanda Plan" to deport immigrants from Britain was "stillborn and buried before it started," considering that this project "was not going to be a deterrent" to illegal immigration. The Labour government will work to establish a "new Border Security Command" to eliminate human trafficking gangs across the British border and give it broad powers such as treating them as "terrorists". As for legal immigration, the new government will work to impose more restrictions on granting visas, amend the British points system, and reduce the backlog of asylum applications by increasing the number of social workers.

On the external front, it is expected that Starmer's government will not make any fundamental changes, as the Labour Party's positions are very similar to those of the Conservative Party in foreign policy and Britain's international relations, including:

1.   Brexit and the European Union: British relations with the European Union are one of the most pressing issues facing the Labour government, as the latter hopes for warmer relations, without seeking to return to the European Union, the single market, or the customs union, abandoning the hostile rhetoric toward Brussels that has characterized the Conservative government’s rhetoric since 2016 and moving toward more rational and realistic options with Europe, as was evident in the meeting held by the European Political Group on July 18 in Britain, in which French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz participated, and pushing toward concluding an agreement to remove restrictions that hinder trade with the European Union, as well as concluding security and defense cooperation agreements with it, in parallel with strengthening bilateral relations with European countries, most notably France and Germany.

2.   The stability of the Anglo-American relationship: It seems clear that the Labour government led by Starmer will move forward in consolidating Anglo-American relations regardless of the identity of the American president in the White House. The Labour Party has a long tradition in the Atlantic. London will remain Washington's strategic ally and its reliable supporter in maintaining the international system based on rules according to the Western vision. (Among the evidence of this relationship, specifically from the Labour Party's perspective, we recall Tony Blair, Prime Minister from 1997 to 2007, who was famous for the "special relationship" that linked Britain to Washington to the point of providing unconditional support to George W. Bush in his invasion of Iraq). This applies to other important issues, such as global security, the war on terror, climate change, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and other issues. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy expressed the stability of these relations by saying, "The relationship goes beyond who rules 10 Downing Street or who rules the White House."

3.   Continuing hostility toward Russia: The Labour government will continue to follow the Conservative government’s approach in its policy of hostility toward Russia, which is considered a threat to British national security. This is a policy that all British political parties agree on, which is represented by imposing sanctions on Russia and providing weapons to Ukraine, in addition to ideological opposition to Putin’s “imperialism". The Labour government believes that this anti-Russian orientation will strengthen Britain’s presence as a reliable and strong party in Europe.

4.   NATO: The Labour government is expected to conduct a strategic defense review during its first year to set a course toward increasing defense spending to 2.5% of the GDP and to reaffirm its commitment to NATO as a cornerstone of European and global security. (We must not forget the strong links of the Labour Party with NATO, as we cannot forget and ignore how Clement Attlee, Labour Prime Minister from 1945 to 1951, helped establish NATO). The Labour government also plans to work with allies to build, strengthen, and reform NATO and other multilateral institutions, including the United Nations, the G7, and the G20 to address new global challenges. In this context, Starmer said that his government "will maintain an unwavering commitment to the Alliance and our nuclear deterrent, and will focus again on improving the morale of our armed forces."

5.   The challenge of China's rise: China and its relationship constitute one of the most prominent challenges to the British foreign policy of the Labour government, whose leader, David Starmer, and Foreign Secretary David Lammy, expressed their desire to conduct a complete review of London's relationship with Beijing, considering that the Conservative government's policy was largely inconsistent with China, as the Conservatives initially embraced Chinese investment and praised the "golden age" of relations under David Cameron, and then China was described as the "greatest threat to global security" under Sunak. Accordingly, the Labour government will adopt a strategy for relations with China based on three dimensions: cooperation on global issues such as climate change, competition in the field of semiconductors, trade, and investment, challenging the vision of the international system, and criticizing human rights violations.

6.   The Middle East: The Labour government's policy toward the Middle East, headed by Keir Starmer, is based on a mixture of active engagement, warning, and cooperation. Starmer announced that his government is committed to recognizing the Palestinian state "as a contribution to the renewed peace process leading to a two-state solution" but did not set any timetable for doing so and to pushing for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all captives, and increasing the amount of aid reaching Gaza. This shift in direction toward the Palestinian issue came after a wave of anger and widespread resentment among Muslim minorities over the biased statements for "Israel" that Starmer announced earlier before winning the elections and assuming the premiership, as he supported "Israel's right to defend itself" after the events of October 7, 2023, even by cutting off water and electricity to the Gaza Strip, not to mention his delay in supporting immediate ceasefire. It is also expected that the Labour government will continue to consider Palestinian Resistance factions as "terrorist" groups.

On Iran, Starmer’s government is expected to take a more assertive approach, open up to designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "terrorist organization", tighten the screws on Iran’s allies in the region, and move closer to the US approach on Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran’s growing influence in the region, and Iran’s growing missile and military capabilities. This approach will have wide and significant repercussions in the event of Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House.

The Labour government will place great importance on further rapprochement between Britain and the Gulf, particularly in terms of trade, as well as regional stability and security. In remarks made by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy last May, he stressed the importance of relations with the Gulf states. He said, “We urgently need to work with the Gulf, and this is very important for security in the Middle East.” He continued, “It is important for our economic growth missions,” citing his recent trips to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

This mix of approaches reflects an approach to foreign policy that David Lammy has called “progressive realism", by which Britain needs to cling to its international standing, and the need of angry voters to see the change they expect from a Labour government that has no magic wand for Britain’s chronic problems and crises.

In conclusion, it can be said that the challenges of the British government headed by Keir Starmer are many, and the hopes of the British for their government to bring about transformations that will revive their exhausted economy and their lives that have changed like their fading empire are great. The internal challenges are not easy and cannot be solved easily. British foreign policy is also miserable and at its worst, intractable problems with the European Union after Brexit have not found a way to resolve and agree on them, and this also applies to the Northern Ireland Protocol, deep-rooted hostility with Russia, a war in Ukraine that does not herald a near and available solution, fierce competition with China that portends a major escalation, complete dependence on the United States of America in approaching major issues at the global level, and reliance on it to maintain its role and influence, and international relations that have become completely militarized, dominated by polarization and sharp division, and a state of uncertainty prevailing in the international system. Between the interior and the exterior, there is a difficult test awaiting the Labour government, and based on it, its fate will be determined, which seems to be without features until now.