On July 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the Kremlin during an unannounced visit to Moscow. During the meeting, the Russian President informed his Syrian counterpart, "I am very interested in your opinion on how the situation in the region as a whole is developing," adding, "Unfortunately, there is a tendency towards escalation, we can see that. This also applies directly to Syria."

While many news agencies and analysts have linked this unannounced meeting between the two leaders to recent attempts to broker a rapprochement between Syria and Turkey, the latest Israeli provocations and regional escalation, present a different perspective. This is particularly evident when considering Putin’s remarks about a “tendency towards escalation," which he specifically applied to Syria.

So, what escalation could President Putin be referring to here? More importantly, how could it directly apply to Syria? After all, this is not only a head of state making these comments, but the Russian President himself, which means that every word carries weight and every statement carries deep meaning.

The Massacre

During the early evening hours of July 27, a rocket struck a football pitch in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, in the occupied Syria Golan Heights, which resulted in the martyrdom of twelve Syrian children and injuring at least 42 other residents of the town.

The leaders of the Zionist entity immediately began pointing fingers at the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon, Hezbollah, accusing the group of responsibility for the attack. They falsely claimed that a 50-kilogram Iranian Falaq-1 rocket was the cause of the massacre. As expected, “Israel’s” Western backers, the Western mainstream media, and some Arabic media outlets instantly adopted the Israeli narrative. The White House issued a statement condemning the attack and blaming Hezbollah:

“We have been in continuous discussions with Israeli and Lebanese counterparts since the horrific attack yesterday in northern Israel that killed a number of children playing soccer. This attack was conducted by Lebanese Hezbollah. It was their rocket and launched from an area they control. It should be universally condemned. Hezbollah started firing on Israel on October 8, claiming solidarity with Hamas, another Iranian-backed terrorist group. Our support for Israel’s security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Hezbollah. The United States is also working on a diplomatic solution along the Blue Line that will end all attacks once and for all, and allow citizens on both sides of the border to safely return to their homes.”

However, despite attempts to portray Hezbollah as the perpetrator of this attack and the claims that an Iranian Falaq-1 rocket caused the massacre, eyewitness testimonies from the town’s residents, along with all available evidence, confirmed that the tragedy was most likely due to an “Iron Dome” interceptor missile gone wrong, having failed to intercept its target and instead landed on the football pitch, resulting in the massacre of these Syrian children.

In fact, photos from the scene show damage inconsistent with what a 50K warhead Iranian Falaq-1  rocket would cause and aligning with the impact of an "Iron Dome" interceptor missile. This type of incident has occurred multiple times during "Israel's" genocidal war on the Gaza Strip.

Despite Hezbollah categorically denying responsibility for the attack and despite eyewitness testimony and all available evidence from the scene supporting the Resistance group’s statements, the Zionist entity vowed revenge. The regime in Washington stood firmly behind “Israel’s” false narrative, affirming its so-called “right to self-defense." Three days later, on the evening of July 30, the Zionist entity “retaliated” by striking a residential building in Beirut’s southern suburb, resulting in the martyrdom of 5 civilians and injuring dozens more. The strike also led to the martyrdom of Senior Hezbollah commander, Fouad Shokor (Hajj Mohsen) and Iranian military advisor, Milad Bedi.

However, the Zionist war machine did not stop there, and several hours later, during the early hours of July 31, the Zionist entity assassinated the head of Hamas’ Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, along with his companion in Tehran. The late martyr Hajj Haniyeh was visiting the Islamic Republic of Iran to participate in the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian President, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian.

Now, how do the massacre of Syrian children at Majdal Shams, the terrorist attacks on both Beirut and Tehran, and the assassinations of martyrs Hajj Mohsen and Hajj Haniyeh relate to the statements made by President Putin during his July 24 meeting with President al-Assad? To address this question, we must first examine the timeline of some key events that led up to where we are today.

The Timeline

The first key event took place back in January when the Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced that it would be suspending its operations against US occupation forces in the region; mainly Iraq and Syria. The decision, which came in the wake of US airstrikes targeting members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), was misinterpreted as a sign of weakness, even though in reality, it was intended to allow the Iraqi government and the United States to discuss the timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

In April, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani traveled to Washington, meeting with US President Joe Biden at the White House, as well as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon, on April 15. Following the White House meeting, it was revealed that the two countries would work together to ensure the withdrawal of a US-led coalition in the country amid regional tensions following "Israel's" war on Gaza and Iran's recent retaliatory strikes on "Israel".

However, Iran’s powerful April 13 retaliation to “Israel’s” attack on its consulate building in Damascus, sent a clear message to the US, “Israel”, and their Western & Arab “allies” that the time of Iranian strategic patience had ended and that a new era had begun, one where Iran would hit back and hit back hard if attacked.

This loss of deterrence in the region, compounded by months of humiliating setbacks in Gaza, South Lebanon, and the Red Sea, along with the June 19 announcement by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) that it would resume military operations against US occupation forces – stemming from US delays in withdrawal negotiations with the Iraqi government – forced the US to reassess the situation. The US and “Israel” were not only losing ground in Gaza, but the US was also on the brink of losing its foothold in both Iraq and Syria. A withdrawal from Iraq would render any US presence in Syria unsustainable.

Now, one may ask why Syria holds such significance or why the US would link its war on Syria, as well as its presence there, to the war in Gaza. The answer is quite straightforward: Syria has long been the stronghold of the Resistance, and a Syria free from US occupation is a Syria that can recover and play a more active role in confronting the Zionist enemy.

More importantly, the liberation of both Syria and Iraq from US occupation is crucial to “unlocking” the West Bank front against the Zionist enemy. Jordan, which often aligns its regional policies with the strong US presence in Iraq and Syria, would be forced to reassess its position and take a step back. This shift would, in turn, facilitate the smuggling of weapons to Resistance factions operating in the West Bank, turning it into a major security threat for the occupation forces.

The Gamble

This brings us back to the remarks President Putin made regarding the “tendency toward escalation” and how this “applies directly to Syria," which came in the wake of Netanyahu’s US visit.

As mentioned at the beginning of this article, these remarks were made by the Russian President himself, and therefore, carried much weight and profound meaning, something that becomes evidently clear once we examine the timeline of key events leading up to this recent Israeli escalation, brought about by the terrorist attacks on Beirut and Tehran and the assassination of high ranking leaders within the Lebanese and Palestinian Resistance movements. 

Furthermore, the timing of the unannounced meeting between the two heads of state indicates that President Putin must have received very credible intelligence reports that indicate that the Biden administration’s policy of de-escalation in the Middle East was radically shifting to a policy of deliberate escalation. This tacit agreement would have been discussed and concluded upon with Netanyahu during his visit.

Much like a poker player with a bad hand, the US has engaged in a reckless and poorly calculated gamble in a desperate attempt to achieve several objectives: pressure the Resistance in Gaza into accepting a ceasefire agreement favorable to “Israel”, restore its deterrence superiority, and compel Iran and the Axis of Resistance to accept that the US troops will not be withdrawing from Syria and/or Iraq. The US hopes to accomplish this by striking both the Lebanese and Iranian capitals and assassinating high-ranking Resistance leaders, such as martyrs Fouad Shokor and Ismail Haniyeh. However, the Americans, who are carelessly treating this war like a high-stakes poker game and repeating the same miscalculated bets they made back in April, fail to recognize that Iran and the Axis of Resistance are engaged in a game of chess, where every move is carefully calculated. In this strategic contest, both the Zionist regime and its U.S. backers are destined to lose.

Final thoughts

While there is no doubt that the Zionist entity committed the horrific massacre at Majdal Shams, recent comments by President Putin regarding Syria – coinciding with Netanyahu’s US visit – along with the subsequent Israeli escalation, which could not have occurred without full US approval and support, cast serious doubt on whether the crime was merely an “Iron Dome” misfire. Instead, these factors suggest it was a deliberate act of aggression against proud Syrians who have long been a thorn in the occupation’s side, with the sole purpose of blaming the Lebanese Resistance and using that false narrative as a pretext for a US-Israeli planned escalation.

Furthermore, while there may be voices falsely claiming - much as they did back in April - that Iran and the Axis of Resistance “will not respond” or that any response will be merely to “save face”, the reality is that those making and repeating such claims do not fully grasp the intricacies of politics, nor do they understand Iran or the Axis of Resistance. Therefore, they are incapable of comprehending what is at stake here or recognizing the developments that have unfolded in the region over the past ten months.

When it comes to what is at stake, it is not only about who holds deterrence superiority or the “upper hand”. What is truly at stake here is the future of Palestine, the Palestinian cause, the entire Middle East region, and the very concept of Muslim unity. It is no coincidence that martyr Ismail Haniyeh, one of the most prominent Sunni-Muslim leaders, was assassinated in Tehran, the Shia-Muslim capital of the world. This is why Iran not only feels a duty to defend its sovereignty, its people, and its honor by avenging the attack on its capital and the assassination of its guest but also views severely punishing the Zionist enemy as a necessary obligation for maintaining Muslim unity. Such a response would deliver a significant blow to those who have tirelessly tried to sow sectarian divisions among Muslims in the region for decades. 

These are all things the Biden administration fully understands, which is why it has been desperately attempting to persuade both Hezbollah and Iran not to respond to the recent Israeli escalation - or to at least, minimize the severity of their responses. The goal is to allow both the US and “Israel” to maintain deterrence superiority and achieve their broader objectives. However, all attempts to convince the Lebanese Resistance and the Iranians have failed miserably. The leadership of both has made it abundantly clear that their responses are imminent and non-negotiable and that will be very painful for the Israeli regime.

Now, the US, the illegitimate Zionist entity, and their so-called Western and Arab “allies” must wait in suspense as Iran, Hezbollah, and the Axis of Resistance subject the Zionist entity to psychological torment before delivering the severe punishment it deserves.

This is what happens when an impulsive and erratic gambler (the US & “Israel”) goes all-in, trying to outsmart the wise and patient carpet weaver (Iran & the Axis of Resistance).