The International Economy in the Post-Russian-Ukrainian War

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It's widely debated whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict will speed up or slow down the transition to a low-carbon economy, in addition to the apparent human toll. It's not clear; there is no way of knowing what the consequences of the conflict will be or how countries and businesses would respond to it.

Despite months of preparation, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the operation on February 24, 2022. Building (from January 24 to February 23), Outbreak (from February 24 – the day of the invasion – to March 8, when the US prohibited Russian oil, gas, and coal), and Continuation (from March 8 onward).

Businesses that were exposed to climate risk did well, particularly in the United States. A slower transition to a low-carbon economy is anticipated by investors. High-transition-risk stocks' earnings expectations for 2022-2025 have been boosted by analysts. Enterprises with climatic advantages get a short-term boost in the outbreak phase, but this benefit reverses in the continuation phase.

Stocks with low climate change possibilities outperformed those with high transition risk. As Europe relies on Russian oil and gas, it seems likely that the only solution to ensure energy security is to increase the use of renewable energy sources. Investors anticipate that the rates of change in the United States and Europe will diverge.

During the outbreak, firms with a high risk of inflation exposure performed the poorest. Following Christine Lagarde's statements, these stocks have underperformed into the continuation period. It will have a significant impact on economic activity through higher energy and commodity prices, disruption of international commerce, and diminished confidence," she declared in a March 10, 2022 news conference. Because of the lack of noteworthy inflation shocks, experts have had difficulty analyzing inflation's impact on corporate value.

Investors are concerned about a company's global involvement. Companies that rely heavily on international sales fell short of expectations. For example, Chinese-oriented businesses underperformed in the outbreak. A possible explanation is the recent outbreak of COVID-19 in China and the resulting supply-chain issues and international sales funnel hazards, but it could also indicate to broader geopolitical implications of the Russia-Ukraine war, including increased friction between the United States and China.

Prices might fluctuate based on factors such as firm leverage and cash holdings. Inflation fears arose by the end of April 2022, turning cash into a negative value driver. A low-carbon economy requires global policy cooperation since climate change is a global issue. COVID-19 and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) give a better understanding of crisis-time business practices. Leverage was kept to a minimum and cash was amassed in large quantities. Russia-Ukraine relations were affected by a variety of factors, including financial strength and ESG rankings. The use of fossil fuels and the threat of global warming appear to be important considerations.

The resurgence of economic activity following COVID-19, concerns about new virus strains, rising inflation, and new monetary policy and central bank frameworks were only some of the events that investors encountered before to the Ukraine war. Another black swan is Europe's war and its geopolitical ramifications.

There is a strong correlation between a company's long-term sustainability as well as its ability to adapt to changes in interest rates. Regulatory climate risks are essential. Regional geopolitics, particularly the reliance on Russian energy and Chinese commerce, determines their impact on equity markets. Investors anticipate that the rates of change in the United States and Europe will diverge. Experts had previously disregarded inflation fears as a temporary phenomenon, but the facts reveal that they have grown entrenched and will not go away soon. Investors are also concerned about the war's geopolitical repercussions and the prospect of more conflict.