The decision by the Biden administration to re-deploy American troops to Somalia is bad news for several countries in the region and beyond. It’s bad news for Ethiopia because the new pro-US Somali president supports the separatist TPLF movement, which until recently was waging a full-scale war against Addis Ababa. It’s bad news also for Eritrea due to that country’s decades-long attempt to maintain its independence and sovereignty in the face of constant and unrelenting pressure from the ‘international community’, that is to say, Western imperial powers.

There are several issues to consider here. With Africa’s longest coastline, Somalia is of key strategic importance for the United States. During the Cold War, the United States propped up the Siad Barre regime which caused problems for the Soviet-backed Marxist Derg regime running Ethiopia. A key bone of contention between the two countries was the ethnically-Somalian Ogaden region of Ethiopia, which with US support, waged a long independence struggle. The struggle continues to this day. This could cause further difficulties for the Ethiopian government which has been dealing with the insurgency of the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), which has full US backing. 

A recrudescence of the US-backed insurgency in Ogaden would be a nightmare for Ethiopia. And there are signs that more trouble may be on the way for Addis Ababa. A delegation of the Ogaden National Liberation Front met President Hassan Mohamed on May 21. Although the group claims to espouse peaceful methods of achieving separation from Ethiopia, that will not reassure President…

The return of US troops to Somalia is also bad news for Eritrea. Dubbed the ‘North Korea of Africa’ in the Western media, Eritrea is one of the great economic success stories of the continent. In recent years, the country’s economic growth reached 17 percent. But they have been punished by the United States for refusing to become lackeys of US imperialism in the region. Formally an Italian colony, then after the defeat of Mussolini in the Abyssinian war part of Ethiopia, Eritrea fought long and hard for its independence; and President Isaias Afwerki has no intention of allowing imperial interests to get in the way of the country’s national development goals.

The United States imposed new sanctions on Eritrea in November 2021 due to its support for Ethiopia’s struggle against the TPLF. Washington has never disguised the fact that it wants regime change in Asmara. Part of Washington’s dirty war against Eritrea has been the exploitation of the region’s emigration problems. The United Nations has also played a key role in this. For example, Eritreans entering Europe can automatically register as political refugees. There are many instances where Ethiopians and Somalians are registered as ‘Eritrean refugees’. This creates the impression in the Western media that millions are fleeing Afwerki’s ‘oppressive’ regime. US-backs opposition activists and Western NGOs working in the Mediterranean Sea are heavily active in this covert war against Eritrea.

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On 25 March, the TPLF agreed to a cessation of hostilities. The ceasefire was a major achievement of Eritrean- Ethiopian diplomacy. Those two countries had fought a border war in 1998 and had remained bitter enemies throughout the presidency of former Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi. But relations have dramatically improved since the takeover of Aby Ahmed.

On December 30 last year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Li visited Eritrea, where he condemned US sanctions against that country and supported the government’s efforts to end the TPLF insurgency in Ethiopia. Ethiopia and Eritrea are vital partners of China in the Horn of Africa where Beijing now has its first overseas military base in Djibouti, not far from US military base Camp Lemonnier. 

Washington asserts that it is simply coming to the aid of the Somali government in its fight against the Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group Al-Shabab. But the real reason for the deployment is more likely to continue to destabilize countries that have come so close to Beijing and to prevent losing Somalia to rival powers. 

Among those rival powers is Turkey. Ankara has been a huge investor in Somalia over the last decade in a wide range of economic sectors. It is also heavily involved in the training of the Somalian military. It is no secret that Turkey wants to recuperate the imperial reach of the Ottoman era. In 2017 Turkey opened a military base in Mogadishu, where it has been training more than 10,000 troops per year.  

Ankara has been investing all over Africa and understands the importance of using its status as an Islamic power to gain influence in Muslim-dominated African nations. Although a member of NATO, Turkey has also been sanctioned by the United States over its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system. 

Turkey and the United States are also in conflict over the US backing of Kurdish militants in Syria. Ankara is now blocking the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO. The return of US troops to Somalia could also interfere with Turkey’s geopolitical ambitions. 

A decaying empire with a senile president, the US empire is fomenting destruction wherever it goes. The recent peace in Somalia and currently in Ethiopia was largely due to the investments of emerging powers. But now with the return of Uncle Sam, that peace may not last for long more.