Trump could blow up dollar, disrupting global market: Danish bank
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Saxo Bank predicts that Donald Trump's tariffs could cause the dollar to plunge by 20% in 2025.
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An image of Benjamin Franklin is seen on US $100 bills, on July 14, 2022. (AP)
Denmark's Saxo Bank has unveiled its annual "outrageous predictions," which highlight potential but improbable events that could disrupt global financial markets in 2025.
In its forecast, the investment bank suggests that the world will seek alternatives to the US dollar in the coming year, triggered by the incoming Donald Trump administration imposing hefty tariffs on imports and slashing government spending, with the help of an Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency.
Saxo’s chief macro strategist, John Hardy, said that “the implications for the US dollar are dire for trade around the world, as it cuts off the needed supply of dollars to keep the wheels of the global USD system turning, ironically risking a powerful spike higher in the US dollar."
As a result, the cryptocurrency market is expected to surge, potentially reaching over $10 trillion, while the US dollar could decline by 20% against major currencies and fall 30% relative to gold.
Analysts at the Copenhagen-based bank also predict that Nvidia’s market value could soar to twice that of Apple, fueled by the expanded availability of its revolutionary 208-billion transistor Blackwell chip.
According to the bank, as the AI arms race intensifies, "no giant or even government wants to be left behind, and as AI data center electricity costs have soared, the insatiable demand for the more powerful and yet less power-hungry Blackwell chips sees Nvidia taking the crown as the most profitable company of all time."
This could drive Nvidia’s share price from its current level of nearly $139 to "well above" $250, sparking market speculation on just how high it could climb.
China could be a 'game changer'
Another major shake-up for global markets could come from China, which may introduce a colossal fiscal stimulus of 50 trillion yuan ($7 trillion) in 2025 and the years that follow, designed to "reflate" its economy.
The bank’s Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana wrote, “Much of the spending goes directly into consumers’ pockets via e-CNY digital currency, so that it will be injected straight into the economy rather than to pay off debt."
According to the strategist, these measures could trigger a "strong reflationary impact" both in China and globally, along with rising commodity prices.
In another prediction, the bank suggests that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could become "irrelevant" next year as electric vehicles gain widespread popularity and affordability.
“With some members already cheating production quotas to grab what income they can and export demand falling, a majority of members quickly realize the jig is up. Amidst the bickering and in-fighting, key members leave. This consigns OPEC to the ash heap of history. Former members max out production to ensure market share, driving a large drop in oil prices,” Saxo wrote.
Other forecasts for 2025 include the UK pound regaining its post-Brexit discount against the euro, the US implementing a significant AI data center tax due to rising power costs, and the creation of the first fully functional human heart through 3D bioprinting technology.
